By Manzanita Miller
Former President Trump’s lead in the GOP primary field has increased four percentage points since June, and immigration and cultural issues are pushing more of the public toward the right according to a new Reuters/ Ipsos poll.
The poll found Trump has the support of 47% of Republican primary voters, up from 43% one month ago, while Florida Governor Ron DeSantis trails at 19% and biotech executive Vivek Ramaswamy is up to 9%.
The poll also finds immigration and cultural issues are likely to play a significant role in the next presidential election, and public opinion appears to be shifting toward the right on these issues.
The public now says 48% to 37% that immigration is contributing to increased difficulties for native-born Americans, and this echoes Gallup polling data showing an increasing number of Americans want immigration numbers restricted.
The Gallup survey found a significant rise in dissatisfaction with immigration in the past two years under the Biden Administration, and the bulk of those who are dissatisfied say they want immigration curbed.
Two-thirds (63%) of Americans are currently dissatisfied with immigration, the highest share in over a decade. The survey also found the share of Americans who want immigration levels decreased has more than doubled since President Biden took office, going from 19% in early 2021 to 40% today.
The same survey found a sharp spike in dissatisfaction with immigration levels not only among Republicans, but among Democrats and Independents as well. A full 70% of Republicans are dissatisfied with the immigration crisis and want immigration levels decreased, up from 40% in 2021.
Independents are also increasingly concerned with immigration levels, with 36% saying immigration levels should be curbed, up from 19% only two years ago.
The share of Democrats who say immigration should be reduced has skyrocketed under the Biden Administration going from just 2% when Biden took office to nearly a fifth of Democrats (19%) today.
Americans also want to discourage illegals who are already here from settling in the U.S., with a recent Harvard-Harris poll finding an overwhelming 68% of Americans believe that those who cross the border unlawfully should be dissuaded from establishing residency in the United States.
Public opinion is shifting on immigration, and there is momentum building for limiting the share of immigrants the United States accepts on both sides of the aisle.
Cultural issues are also heating up, with the recent Reuters poll showing Americans say 50% to 36% that issues related to sexuality and gender identity should not be taught in public schools.
A similar sentiment was found in a recent Harvard-Harris poll which found that eight out of ten Americans would favor legislation in their states giving parent’s more control in their children’s education. The poll also found seven out of ten Americans say schools should not teach children that gender is unrelated to biological conditions.
These findings suggest cultural issues will play an important role in the 2024 election. A growing share of Americans across the political spectrum are open to conservative approaches to restricting immigration and teaching a science-based approach to gender in schools.
Manzanita Miller is an associate analyst with Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
