Former President Donald Trump is leading incumbent President Joe Biden by 10 points in Michigan, 50 percent to 40 percent, and Georgia by 5 points, 49 percent to 44 percent, according to the latest CNN-SSRS poll.
Now, Biden could do without Georgia in his bid for reelection in the scheme of the Electoral College, but definitely not without Michigan, a state that Trump surprisingly carried in 2016 when he defeated Hillary Clinton.
In both polls, the biggest problem Biden has is he losing men by much wider margins than he is carrying women. In Michigan, Trump leading among men 59 percent to 34 percent while Biden only leads women 46 percent to 43 percent. And in Georgia, Trump leads men 55 percent to 37 percent while Biden only leads women 50 percent to 44 percent.
This situation is the opposite of what we saw in 2020, when Biden was able to improve Democrats’ showing among men while maximizing support from women. A lot can change in three years.
And among party breakdown, Trump carries independents in Michigan 53 percent to 30 percent — a whopping 23-point margin — and in Georgia, he leads independents 47 percent to 35 percent, a 12-point margin.
Simply put, these numbers are utterly devastating to Biden and Democrats hoping to hold onto the White House, and with less than 12 months away from the election, voter attitudes are already setting in.
That’s not to say Biden will not still be difficult for Trump or some other Republican to defeat in 2024, and that Biden might not still stage a comeback similar to Harry Truman in 1948. Usually, incumbent presidents win about two-thirds of the time, and so even leading the polls still means that Trump and Republicans will need to wage effective campaigns, identify and register new voters and so forth.
In the meantime, President Joe Biden at a fundraiser on Dec. 5 recently rekindled discussion of potentially being replaced on the ballot when he told donors, “We’ve got to get it done, not because of me… If Trump wasn’t running, I’m not sure I’d be running. We cannot let him win.”
Much speculation had been swirling around California Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom potentially replacing Biden on the ballot in 2024, something Newsom appeared to put to bed in a Fox News televised debate on Nov. 30 with Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.), when Newsom stated, “Neither of us will be the nominee for our party in 2024.”
Interestingly, just a single poll has been done that asked voters who they preferred between Trump and Newsom, a November Fox News poll, that showed Trump would best him nationally 49 percent to 44 percent. In that poll, Newsom fare no better than Biden, who Trump led 50 percent to 46 percent.
But that cannot have been the only poll that asked the question.
If Newsom was supposed to be so dangerous to Trump, media outlets would have already published those polls amid the continued push to replace Biden. It could very well indicate that Newsom does not in fact fare well in polls against Trump nationally, to say nothing of swing states like Michigan or Georgia, where the election will truly be decided on a state-by-state basis.
At the end of the day, the question is not who might look good on paper, it’s about who can win enough states to get to 270 in the Electoral College. Stay tuned.
Robert Romano is the Vice President of Public Policy at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
