“[T]he sacred cause of this country is larger than any one of us. Those of us who cher[ish] that cause cherish it so much. The cause of American democracy itself. We must unite to protect it. In recent weeks, it has become clear to me that I need to unite my party in this critical endeavor… So, I’ve decided the best way forward is to pass the torch to a new generation. It’s the best way to unite our nation.”
That was President Joe Biden, delivering a rare Oval Office address on July 24 withdrawing from the 2024 presidential campaign and leaving the Democratic Party nomination to Vice President Kamala Harris, whom he has already endorsed and who appears to have secured enough support among the party’s convention delegates when they meet next month.
Biden added, “I believe my record as president, my leadership in the world, my vision for America’s future, all merited a second term. But nothing, nothing can come in the way of saving our democracy. That includes personal ambition.”
So, in order to “sav[e] our democracy,” and to unite the country, Biden said it was necessary to unite his party, many of whom were calling for him to be replaced as a candidate — without voters having any role whatsoever in the decision.
This was a speech Biden could have delivered last year, before 14.6 million Americans voted for him in the 2024 Democratic Party primaries — who are now disenfranchised. In fact, about 35 percent of Democrats wanted Biden to stay in the race in the latest AP-NORC poll taken July 11 to July 15. Biden could have cleared the way for an open seat, but he said he wanted to run for re-election and, importantly, Democrats wanted to avoid a divisive primary that would have lowered their chances of winning the general election.
So, how to remove Biden but without a primary full of in-fighting? Skip it and then, if necessary, anoint the replacement when there is little to no time to mount a credible challenge the presumptive nominee.
This was a shadow primary. How democratic.
It was only when the American people saw Biden in his disastrous June 27 debate against former President Donald Trump — the earliest scheduled general election debate in American history and deliberately so — that Democratic Party leaders and Democratic-leaning media outlets immediately pounced and called for Biden’s removal as a candidate, who had been trailing Trump in national polls since Sept. 2023.
Within a month, Biden was out, and Harris was in, with no time for any other Democratic Party contenders to contest the nomination. But a similar problem immediately emerges for Democrats, which is, Harris does not fare much better in the polls than Biden did prior to his debate with Trump.
For example, the Morning Consult has Trump edging Harris in the national popular vote 47 percent to 45 percent taken on July 21 to July 22 after Biden dropped out. On June 14-16, prior to the debate, Morning Consult was one of the very few polls that had Biden leading the race, 44 percent to 43 percent.
Similarly, NPR-PBS-Marist had Biden ahead of Trump 50 percent to 48 percent in an early July post-debate poll but now shows Trump ahead of Harris 46 percent to 45 percent post-Biden leaving the race.
And, CNN in a July 22 to July 23 poll has Trump ahead of Harris 49 percent to 46 percent, which is about the same as Biden in January in the CNN poll, when it was 49 percent to 45 percent in Trump’s favor.
In other words, Democrats’ situation has not necessarily improved, with Trump leading Harris in the national average polls compiled by RealClearPolling.com, 47.8 percent to 45.1 percent. That’s not surprising, given the circumstances, as Harris was given no opportunity to build her own base by competing in the primaries and winning critical support.
Instead Harris will be crowned at the convention.
To be fair, party conventions were the traditional way of naming candidates before 1972 for most of American history, but primaries were a part of the process beginning in 1912 in an increasing amount of states. In fact, no candidate in American history who was installed at a national convention has ever defeated a candidate who won his or her primaries outright. If Harris does somehow manage to win, she’ll be the first. Stay tuned.
Robert Romano is the Vice President of Public Policy at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
