The economy remains the top concern of the American people in the 2024 election by more than 20 points according the latest poll from Fox News taken Aug. 9 to Aug. 12, with 38 percent saying the economy was the most important issue and former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris on it 52 percent to 46 percent.
That included 49 percent of Republicans, 44 percent of independents and 25 of Democrats saying the economy was the top issue. Every age group agreed, with 42 percent of those under 45-years-old saying it was the most important issue, and 36 percent over the age of 45 saying so. Whites, Blacks and Hispanics also agreed, with 38 percent, 40 percent and 40 percent respectively saying it’s the most important issue.
With unemployment up almost 1.5 million since its Dec. 2022 low to 7.16 million, and overall consumer prices up 18.95 percent since Feb. 2021 and personal incomes not keeping up, there’s reason to be concerned.
And on handling the economy, 58 percent of men said Trump would do a better job, with just 41 percent of men saying Harris would. And 51 percent of women said Harris would do a better job, with 47 percent saying Trump would.
Meanwhile 55 percent of Whites said Trump would handle the economy better, with 44 percent saying Harris, and 57 percent of Hispanics favored Trump on the economy, with just 42 percent saying Harris would. Whereas 69 percent of Blacks favored Harris on the economy, with 29 percent saying Trump would do a better job.
Unsurprisingly, as a result of leading on the most important issue, Trump leads the overall poll 50 percent to 49 percent in the two-way race.
Similar patterns emerge in the two-way race: Trump leads men by 12 points, 55 percent to 43 percent, while Harris only leads women by 10 points, 54 percent to 44 percent. And Trump leads independents 53 percent to 41 percent, while roughly equal shares of Republicans (93 percent) support Trump and Democrats (94 percent) support Harris.
The implication once again is that the national popular vote could be at play in November for the first time in 20 years as Democrats have won the national vote in five out of the last six elections, but Democrats lost the Electoral College in two of those contests, 2000 and 2016. Whereas, no Republican who won the popular vote has ever lost the Electoral College.
Other polls consistently show the economy and inflation are the top issues, including the latest CNBC poll taken July 31 to Aug. 4, with 85 percent saying inflation and the cost of living were among the most important issues and 81 percent saying the economy was.
Whereas, the latest YouGov poll taken July 30 to Aug. 1 has Trump up by 10 points over Harris on the economy, 45 percent to 35 percent, including being up by 19 points among Whites and 3 points among Hispanics, and leading every single age group even 18-29 by 6 points and 30-44 by 4 points, 45-54 by 13 points and 65 and above by 14 points. Trump even led women on the economy by 6 points, and led men by 13 points on the issue.
Since Harris is an incumbent and it’s the first term for the incumbent Democrats, and seemingly the only way incumbents appear to lose is because of the economy and perceptions over who would handle it better, Trump’s emphasis on inflation and the economy are well taken. The former president proposes restoring low inflation growth, mass deportation for the millions of illegal immigrants thus protecting American jobs, ending ESG-DEI racial preferences and restoring merit and lowering energy prices by boosting production even further are far more impactful on Americans’ day-to-day lives.
As James Carville famously warned in 1992, “It’s the economy, stupid!” And in 2024, if the election comes down to the economy, Kamala Harris could be in big trouble. Stay tuned.
Robert Romano is the Vice President of Public Policy at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
