The latest New York Times-Siena poll taken Sept. 11 to Sept. 16 shows the national race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump to be tied both in the two-candidate race, 47 percent to 47 percent, and in the multi-candidate poll including Jill Stein, Chase Oliver and Cornell West, 46 percent to 46 percent.
This was New York Times-Siena’s first poll after the Sept. 10 debate between the two candidates and the implication, once again, is that if the national race is tied, that means the national popular vote is in play potentially for the first time in 20 years. The last time a Republican won both nationally and in the Electoral College was in 2004 when George W. Bush was reelected.
That’s significant because no Republican who has won the popular vote has ever lost the Electoral College in U.S. history. Whereas, it has happened to Democrats five times, 1824, 1876, 1888, 2000 and 2016, although only in 1876 did the candidate, Samuel Tilden, get above 50 percent in the popular vote. All the other times there were pluralities achieved, 40.5 percent by Andrew Jackson in 1824, 48.6 percent by Grover Cleveland in 1888, 48.4 percent by Al Gore in 2000, and 48.2 percent by Hillary Clinton in 2016.
And pluralities in the popular vote are appearing in a number of the multi-candidate polls including the New York Times-Siena poll.
In this case it’s tied, and that usually shapes up for a tight race in the Electoral College.
Election forecaster Nate Silver’s latest model shows that if the popular vote is tied or has Harris up by less than 1 point, Trump has an 89 percent chance of winning. If Trump were to win the popular vote narrowly, his chances of winning rise to 97.6 percent. That makes tracking the national polls still important as a method of taking the nation’s temperature, even though the official race still comes down to the Electoral College.
One factor that could be playing significantly in 2024, as it did in 2016, is the gender gap, wherein Trump leads men slightly more than Harris leads among women. Trump gets 52 percent of men to Harris’ 39 percent, a 13-point lead, and Harris gets 53 percent of women to Trump’s 41 percent, a 12-point lead. But there’s more women than men, and so the race is tied.
That doesn’t necessarily make 2024 a battle of the sexes per se, as in recent decades demographically, the political parties have tended this way, with Democrats leading among women and Republicans leading among men. Democrats tend to win when they can neutralize Republicans’ advantage among men even slightly, and vice versa for Republicans, or in Trump’s case, by winning the gender gap outright.
On issues, the poll is also very interesting, especially since this one was taken in the immediate aftermath of the debate between Trump and Harris.
On who would handle the economy better, consistently the top issue polled this election cycle with inflation still hurting U.S. households, incomes not keeping up and unemployment up by 1.4 million since Dec. 2022, Trump leads Harris 54 percent to 41 percent, including 60 percent to 34 percent among men and even 49 percent to 47 percent among women.
Trump also leads every single age group on the economy: 56 percent to 42 percent among 65-years-old-and-older, 54 percent to 41 percent among 45-to-64-year-olds, 53 percent to 43 percent among 30-to-44-year-olds and even 46 percent to 43 percent among 18-to-29-year-olds.
On immigration, Trump also leads, this time 54 percent to 42 percent, with Trump leading men and all age groups 30-years-old-and-older, while Harris leads women slightly and among 18-to-29-year-olds.
And on the Ukraine-Russia war, Trump leads 51 percent to 43 percent with his peace plan proposal while Harris wants to keep fighting the war. Here again, Trump leads among men and Harris has a slight lead among women, and Trump leads all age groups 30-years-old-and-older.
The only issues Harris leads on are abortion, 54 percent to 41 percent, and “democracy”, 50 percent to 46 percent.
As for which candidate would bring a major change, Trump leads overwhelmingly, with 49 percent saying major change, 10 percent saying minor change and 38 percent saying more of the same. Whereas, only 25 percent think Harris would bring a major change, 20 percent say minor change and 52 percent saying more of the same.
This definitely shows voters are treating Harris as the incumbent — naturally, she’s the Vice President after all — whereas Trump is selling that major reforms are needed rather successfully, which an opposition candidate absolutely needs to oust an incumbent.
If it’s a change election, that could bode very well for Trump, who has a slight lead among independents in this poll, 46 percent to 44 percent. Also, if the election comes down the economy, immigration and the war in Europe, it could also be favorable for Trump, while if female voters remain locked in on abortion, it tightens things up significantly, where Harris has a major edge.
That’s the current state of the race post-debate, and by all indications it could still be a very close race down the stretch — which might not be good news for the incumbent Harris. As usual, stay tuned.
Robert Romano is the Vice President of Public Policy at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
