Former President Donald Trump has caught up to Vice President Kamala Harris in the latest average of national polls compiled by RealClearPolling.com, which show Trump tied with Harris nationally in both the two-way race, 48.4 percent to 48.4 percent, and the multi-candidate race, 47.5 percent to 47.5 percent.
For comparison, in the closing days of both 2016 and 2020, Trump trailed by Hillary Clinton and President Joe Biden significantly in the averages, by 3.2 points and 7.2 points, respectively.
Both times, the polls had inaccurately overstated what the Democrats’ margin in the popular vote really would be, by 1.1 points in 2016 and 2.7 points in 2020, a 1.9 percent average.
If the same thing happens in 2024, with the polls tied, that might mean that Trump could become the first Republican to win the national popular vote since George W. Bush did so in 2004, with major implications also down the ballot with the U.S. House and Senate up for grabs. No Republican has ever lost the Electoral College while winning the popular vote, but it’s happened to Democrats five times in U.S. history.
But, the U.S. obviously does not decide who is the president by who wins the popular vote, it is decided by the Electoral College, where a majority of votes based on proportional representation for each state determines the winner.
Here, too, Trump is faring quite well in the current state polls: on average leading Arizona by 1.9 points, Nevada by 0.7 points, Wisconsin by 0.2 points, Michigan by 0.2 points, Pennsylvania by 0.6 points, North Carolina by 0.8 points and Georgia by 2.2 points.
And similarly, in 2016 and 2020, polls that looked at the state races similarly overstated Democrats’ support, with a lone exception being Pennsylvania in 2020.
In 2016, in Pennsylvania, the average of polls said Clinton would win by 2.1 points, but Trump won by 0.7 points.
In Michigan, Clinton was supposed win by 3.6 points, but Trump won by 0.3 points.
And in Wisconsin, Clinton was supposed to win by 6.5 points, but Trump won by 0.7 points.
In 2020, in Pennsylvania, again, Biden was supposed to win by 1.2 points, and that is what happened on when all the votes were counted.
But in Michigan, once again, Biden was supposed to win according to the polls by 4.2 points, but the final margin was 2.8 points.
And in Wisconsin, Biden was supposed to win by 6.7 points, but the final margin was 0.7 points.
So, the last two cycles, polls in Pennsylvania are on average tilted towards Democrats by 1 point, in Michigan by 2.65 points and in Wisconsin by 6.6 points. If that happens again, Nov. 5 could be a very good day for Trump.
With all these factors and others in mind, election forecaster Nate Silver is overall giving Trump a 53.7 percent chance of winning the election. And if the popular vote is less than two points in favor of Harris, the odds rise to a 73.8 percent chance of a Trump win. If it’s less than one point, as the polls suggest, Trump’s odds of winning rise to 91.9 percent. And if Trump were to win the popular vote, his victory would be virtually guaranteed at 98.4 percent.
Suffice to say, Trump has never polled so well. Are polls overstating his support? Or could it mean it mean that the so-called shy Trump voter has finally been identified by pollsters after eight years? If so, then 2024 promises to be a very close race. Or, if polls are once again understating Trump’s support American and the world might once again be in for a shock on Election Day with a Trump victory. As usual, stay tuned.
Robert Romano is the Vice President of Public Policy at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
