By Manzanita Miller
This late in the election cycle, the Vice Presidential debate between former President Donald Trump’s running mate J.D. Vance and Vice President Kamala Harris’ pick Tim Walz is unlikely to be a game changer for partisans who have already made up their minds.
However, the debate appears to have caused a shake up among swing voters and independents, with post-debate polls showing Vance did more to bolster the Trump ticket than Walz did the Harris one.
Tuesday’s debate was uncharacteristically cordial, with both candidates offering empathy toward each other at various points, and the Senator and Governor voicing occasional agreement. What stood out is J.D.’s stoic enunciation of the Trump Administration’s plans to increase energy independence, address inflation, secure the border, and structure trade deals that favor U.S. citizens.
After Gov. Tim Walz spoke on the housing crisis, Sen. J.D. Vance made nice, saying “Now, Tim just mentioned a bunch of ideas. Now some of those ideas I actually think are halfway decent, and some of them I disagree with.” Vance went on to illustrate the Trump plan to solve affordable housing by reducing energy costs, expanding building on federal land, and curbing illegal immigration to ensure homes go to American citizens.
At one emotional moment during a discussion on gun safety, Gov. Walz recounted that his son Gus witnessed a shooting, visibly shaking J.D. Vance who stated, “that’s awful”, and shook his head. Vance went on to suggest increased safety protocols to protect children in schools.
According to a poll released by CNN, whose audience one would expect to favor the Harris-Walz ticket, Vance and Walz came out nearly equal in terms of a debate winner Tuesday night.
What is interesting however, is the way that J.D. Vance appears to have exceeded viewer expectations, particularly among independent voters. The poll asked viewers pre-debate who they expected to win, and Americans said by a nine-point margin, 54 percent to 45 percent, they expected Tim Walz to best J.D. Vance. Independents said they expected Kamala’s Vice Presidential pick to beat Trump’s pick by a 20-percentage point margin, 60 percent to 40 percent.
However, after the debate, voters felt very differently. CNN’s audience said Vance beat Walz by two percentage points – within the margin of error, but a far cry from the nine-point loss he was expected to take.
Among independents, J.D. Vance’s cordial demeaner and eloquent explanation of the Trump plan for the economy, immigration, and trade, appear to have resonated even more. Independents flipped the script entirely from what they thought pre-debate, and ended up saying J.D. Vance won the debate by eight points, 54 percent to 46 percent, instead of suffering the 20-point loss they expected pre-debate. According to independent voters, Vance beat expectations by 14 percentage points – 54 percent to 40 percent – while Walz underperformed by 14 points – 46 percent to 60 percent.
While independent voters saw the largest swing toward Vance in terms of debate expectations, nonwhites also moved marginally toward Vance after the debate. The poll shows nonwhites expected Walz to beat Vance by a broad 44-point margin, 72 percent to 28 percent.
However, the debate shifted those numbers, with nonwhites saying Walz beat Vance by 26 points, 63 percent to 37 percent. Vance appears to have exceeded expectations among nonwhites by nine points, while Walz underperformed by nine.
J.D. Vance’s cordial demeanor also appears to have resonated with women, who expected him to lose the debate to Tim Walz by twelve percentage points, 56 percent to 44 percent. However, post-debate, women say Vance won by two points, 51 percent to 49 percent.
How much Tuesday’s debate will matter a month out from election day is difficult to predict, but Americans got a final look into the Trump Administration’s plan for energy independence, a secure border, and trade deals that favor American citizens from J.D. Vance. Vance also exuded cordial leadership and empathy, traits that have raised his appeal among swing voters. Tim Walz attempted to sure up support for his ticket, but largely underperformed, according to voters.
Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
