Eight Bellwether States’ Margins Of Victory To Watch On Election Night: NY, SC, NJ, IN, VA, OH, NH and FL

By Robert Romano

It’s Election Day and that means once polls start closing this evening, everyone is going to want to know some indication about what’s going on across the country to divine, albeit imperfectly, what might be going on in critical battleground states like Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin, but also what’s going on with the popular vote.

On the latter, generally winning the popular vote makes the Electoral College a sure thing for Republicans — no Republican has ever won the popular vote and lost the Electoral College in U.S. electoral history — but less so for Democrats, who have had the largest pluralities in 1824, 1888, 2000 and 2016 of the popular vote, or in 1876, a majority of the popular vote, but ended up losing the Electoral College.

Swing states are generally harder to discern a compelling pattern but a few things seem true about the popular vote: Only Samuel Tilden in 1876 received a majority of the popular vote (greater than 50 percent) and ended up losing the Electoral College.

Since it’s only happened once, if Vice President Kamala Harris is on track for a majority of the popular vote nationally, it is extremely unlikely (although still possible) that she would lose the Electoral College.

But if she is on track to get less than 50 percent of the popular vote, then she might suffer the same fate as Andrew Jackson in 1824, Grover Cleveland in 1888, Al Gore in 2000 and Hillary Clinton in 2016. But how to tell what might happen in the popular vote, given recent demographics and political trends in the U.S.?

I propose looking at the margins of victory in states Democrats or Republicans are considered highly likely to win tonight but also including at least two swing states for each side, meaning both parties had won there since 2000. Therefore, two solid blue states, two solid red states, generally speaking, and four swing states that have gone both ways in recent history, and will be called earlier enough to determine, again, imperfectly, what might be happening everywhere else.

For Democrats, we’ll look at New York, New Jersey, Virginia and New Hampshire in 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016 and 2020. And for Republicans, we’ll look at South Carolina, Indiana, Ohio and Florida those same years.

Starting with the Democrats, in New York, in years Republicans won the Electoral College, Democrats’ margin of victory in New York averaged just 22 percentage points, and in years Democrats won the Electoral College, their margin averaged 26.1 points.

In New Jersey, in Republican years, Democrats’ margin of victory averaged 12.2 points, and in Democratic years, it averaged 16.2 points.

In Virginia, in Republican years, Republicans’ margin of victory averaged 3.6 points, and in Democratic years, Democrats’ margin of victory averaged 6.6 points.

And in New Hampshire, in Republican years, Democrats’ margin of victory averaged 0.1 points, and in Democratic years, it averaged 7.2 points.

As for the Republicans, in South Carolina, in Republican years, Republicans’ margin of victory averaged 15.7 points, and in Democratic years, it averaged 10.2 points.

In Indiana, in Republican years, Republicans’ margin of victory averaged 17.4 points, and in Democratic years, it averaged 8.6 points.

In Ohio, in Republican years, Republicans’ margin of victory averaged 4.5 points, and in Democratic years, it averaged 0.17 points.

And in Florida, in Republican years, Republicans’ margin of victory averaged 2 points, and in Democratic years, Democrats’ margin of victory averaged 0.13 points.

In all eight cases, definitive patterns emerge. For example, big Republican wins in South Carolina above 15 points and in Indiana above 17 points appear to predict Republicans wins in Ohio, Florida and the rest of the Electoral College. Whereas, smaller margins of Republican victory of, say, 10 points and 9 points, respectively, predict a Democratic win in both the popular vote and the Electoral College.

And, big Democratic wins in New York of more than 25 points and 16 points in New Jersey appear to predict Democratic wins in the popular vote, Virginia, New Hampshire and the Electoral College. Whereas smaller wins of 22 points and 12 points predict a Republican win in the Electoral College.

Mixed results in between those ranges might indicate a very close race, and late hours, days or even weeks of counting until we know the outcome, like 2000 and 2020. Or if the above scenarios play out one way or another, a somewhat decisive win, as in 2008, 2012 and 2016.

As for the popular vote for Trump, something that alluded Republicans since 2004, it would appear Trump would need to pull an upset and win in Virginia, for example, to accomplish that feat.

All of these potential outcomes have massive implications down the ballot in Congress. In five out of six instances, the winner of the Electoral College also won a majority in the House of Representatives, with the lone exception being 2012 when Barack Obama was running for reelection but failed to reclaim the House (a feat no president since Harry Truman accomplished in 1948).

And in six out of six instances, the winner of the Electoral College also won a majority in the Senate, although the year 2000 comes with an asterisk, where although Republicans won 50 seats plus the presidency, and should have had a majority with the Vice President, the defection of Vermont Senator Jim Jeffords temporarily flipped the Senate to Democrats.

We’ll see how this all plays out tonight as that is more than enough to chew on for your own scorecards. 2024 has been an exceptional election year, but in many ways, considering the above, the outcome might turn out to be rather normal when all of the bellwethers are considered in hindsight. We’ll see. Stay tuned.

Robert Romano is the Vice President of Public Policy at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.