There is no such thing as a permanent majority.
That might be the lesson from President Donald Trump’s withdrawal of the nomination of U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) for U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, which would have forced another special election this year while Republicans are already nursing just a 218 to 213 majority in the House of Representatives.
In withdrawing the nomination, President Trump on a post on Truth Social on March 28 stated, “As we advance our America First Agenda, it is essential that we maintain EVERY Republican Seat in Congress. We must be unified to accomplish our Mission, and Elise Stefanik has been a vital part of our efforts from the very beginning. I have asked Elise, as one of my biggest Allies, to remain in Congress to help me deliver Historic Tax Cuts, GREAT Jobs, Record Economic Growth, a Secure Border, Energy Dominance, Peace Through Strength, and much more, so we can MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN.”
Trump added, “With a very tight Majority, I don’t want to take a chance on anyone else running for Elise’s seat. The people love Elise and, with her, we have nothing to worry about come Election Day. There are others that can do a good job at the United Nations. Therefore, Elise will stay in Congress, rejoin the House Leadership Team, and continue to fight for our amazing American People. Speaker Johnson is thrilled! I look forward to the day when Elise is able to join my Administration in the future. She is absolutely FANTASTIC. Thank you Elise!”
The news comes as Republican Randy Fine finds himself in a closer than expected race against Democrat Josh Weil for Florida’s Sixth Congressional District that was vacated by National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, with a StPetePolls.org poll taken March 22 to March 25 showing Fine with a 48 percent to 43 percent lead.
That might be enough to win, but it is also far below Waltz’ 66.5 percent to 33.5 percent 2024 win over James Stockton, in a district that President Trump carried by double digits.
There is also another special election in Florida’s First Congressional District that was vacated by former U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), wherein Gaetz similarly won with 66 percent of the vote in 2024 over Gay Valimont’s 34 percent. In that race, Jimmy Patronis faces Valimont again, wherein Valimont will undoubtedly improve on her performance from November — the question will be by how much.
While both have been expected to be relatively easy Republican wins — they may yet be, just look at the 2024 margins — special elections have shown that anything can happen in these very low turnout affairs.
Remember Alabama’s Senate seat vacated by former Attorney General Jeff Sessions that Democrat Doug Jones picked up against Roy Moore in 2017, 49.9 percent to 48.3 percent?
Were Jones and Democrats popular statewide? Not at all. In 2020, Jones lost to Tommy Tuberville by more than 20 points, 60 percent to 39.4 percent.
It works both ways. Remember Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.) who shockingly won the Massachusetts Senate seat in the 2010 special election over Martha Coakley 51.8 percent to 47 percent after the death of Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-Mass.)? Were Republicans suddenly popular in that state? Nope. Elizabeth Warren easily beat Brown 53.7 percent to 46.2 percent in 2012.
The common denominator is which party occupies the White House when the special election happens. In 2010, Barack Obama was the president and in 2017, Donald Trump was the president. Under those circumstances, the party that is out of power, with more motivation, simply tends to show up in greater numbers. In special elections, turnout is really low and so no matter how red or blue a state or district is, either party stands a chance of winning. These types of races can become tossups.
The same can be said of midterm elections. Although they have higher turnout than special elections, they have lower turnout than presidential elections, and they usually favor the opposition party, that is, the party that is not in the White House.
In midterm elections dating back to 1906 through 2022, the party that occupied the White House lost seats in the House 27 out of 30 times, or 90 percent of the time, and in years with losses those averaged 34 seats. In none of the midterms with losses in the House were they ever less than three seats, with the smallest loss in the year there was a loss being four seats by Democrats in 1962.
How’d you like a hitter in your baseball lineup batting .900? Almost sounds like a sure thing. In summary: It is 90 percent likely the GOP will lose seats in the House in 2026 and going back a century it is 100 percent if they do lose seats it will be three or more.
That might not be what Republicans are hoping to hear — they may wish to pass whatever laws they had in mind whether the budget tax cuts and/or border security while they still can if they want to put anything on the scoreboard legislatively — but those are the odds.
The exceptions were 1934, 1998 and 2002, with the intervening events being the Great Depression, Monica Lewinsky and the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. In the 1930s, voters still blamed Republicans for the state of the economy, in 1998 voters soured on Republicans’ imminent impeachment of Bill Clinton and in 2002, George W. Bush was a wartime president who campaigned on needing more political support to defeat the enemy.
On the Senate side, the White House incumbent party lost seats 20 out of 30 times, almost 67 percent of the time, and in years with losses those averaged 6 seats. The exceptions there have more to do with which Senate seats were up when — only one-third of the 100 seats come up for reelection every two years, and depending on the states coming up, could occasionally favor the White House incumbent party — but the same dynamics are still at play.
And still, batting .670 sounds pretty good, too.
Usually, the opposition party picking up seats in either chamber, whether in a special election or certainly the midterms especially if the result is a majority, are accompanied by obligatory exhilaration by the victorious party. A clear “verdict” had been rendered by the American people.
So it was in the 1986 midterms when Democrats reclaimed the U.S. Senate and held the House from Ronald Reagan and the Republicans, in 1994 when Republicans picked up the House and Senate from Bill Clinton and the Democrats, in 2006 when Democrats picked up the House and Senate from George W. Bush and the GOP, in 2010 and 2014 when Republicans picked up the House and Senate respectively from Barack Obama and the Democrats and again in 2022 when Republicans picked up the House from Joe Biden and the Democrats. That’s a lot of clear verdicts!
And if Trump had not prevailed in the 2024 election and helped Republicans win the Senate and keep the House, 2026 would have been a prime year for Republicans to pick up seats in both chambers again. Instead, 2026 will be a prime year for Democrats to pick up seats and maybe majorities with Trump in the White House.
Nothing is guaranteed but the pattern is a lot like clockwork, and it is by design — James Madison’s constitutional scheme of periodic legislative elections every two years that serve as the major check on the powers of any party or faction under the Federal Constitution. Again, there is no such thing as a permanent majority, although some last longer than others. To make them stick usually requires big wins in presidential years — big shifts occurred wherein a president won a big enough majority in one or both chambers to be expected to withstand the midterms in 1904 with Theodore Roosevelt, 1912 with Woodrow Wilson, 1920 with Warren Harding, 1928 with Herbert Hoover, 1932 with Franklin Roosevelt, 1948 with Harry Truman, 1964 with Lyndon Johnson and 1980 with Ronald Reagan.
2024 wasn’t one of those years. But then again neither were 1960 or 2000, when John Kennedy and George W. Bush had narrower majorities but managed to hold onto their majorities in the following midterms due to exigent factors including the Cuban Missile Crisis and 9/11 and the Iraq War resolution, respectively.
In 2025, political soothsayers will get a better sense of how 2026 is shaping up based on these special elections in Congress and also the gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey later this year, which often can predict a wave election for the opposition party the following year.
For now, Republicans have a majority — if they can keep it.
Robert Romano is the Executive Director of Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
