“I am confident that we will bring Trump’s popularity numbers and strength down if we keep at it and keep at it and keep at it.”
That was Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) on March 19 on PBS News Hour outlining the singular goal of Democrats who are in opposition to President Donald Trump and Republicans who have House and Senate majorities — to “bring down” the President’s approval ratings to hinder his policy agenda in Washington, D.C. and hurt Republicans in the 2026 Congressional midterms.
Since taking office in January, President Donald Trump has taken to quickly implementing his agenda particularly on immigration and trade, securing the border, halting the flow of illegal aliens into the U.S., deporting terrorist criminal drug cartel gangs and using tariffs to initiate negotiations with trade partners.
In the meantime, Republicans in Congress continue completing work on their plan to extend and expand the 2017 Trump tax cuts, secure the border and lock in any savings found by the White House Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).
And Democrats and media outlets favorable to them continue an all-out assault on the President’s approval rating. So, after more than 100 days, how has the effort to tarnish Trump, who no longer faces election, and Republicans by extension with 2026 looming?
President Trump’s approval rating, currently averaging 45.2 percent according to the latest national average by RealClearPolling is still higher than his entire first term of office. 51.7 percent disapprove.
In 2017, Trump’s approval averaged 40.5 percent, with disapproval averaging 54 percent. In 2018, it averaged 42.5 percent, with disapproval averaging 53.2 percent. In 2019, it averaged 43.4 percent, with disapproval averaging 53.3 percent. And in 2020, it averaged 44.4 percent, with disapproval averaging 53.1 percent.
There is some focus on Trump being upside down as he usually was in his first term. But for the two most recent second term presidents, George W. Bush and Barack Obama, it’s not unusual to go underwater at last this century. By May 2005, George W. Bush was underwater on his approval rating, never to return, and by June 2013, so was Barack Obama (although he recovered in 2016).
Despite the low polling averages, Trump has consistently overperformed politically when put to the test. While losing 41 seats in the House in 2018 — that’s above average 34 seats lost in years with losses by the White House incumbent party in midterms going back to 1906 — Trump and Republicans actually picked up two Senate seats, when in years with losses, the incumbents lost on average six seats.
In midterms, the White House incumbent party tends to lose seats in the House about 90 percent of the time, and in the Senate about 66 percent of the time. Any deviation from those norms is considered a win for the incumbents.
In 2020, despite being upside down on approval and the steep but brief Covid recession, Trump barely lost the election by a scant 43,000 votes in three swing states — 23,000 in Wisconsin, 10,000 in Arizona and 10,000 in Georgia.
And in 2024, despite first term presidential incumbent parties winning about two-thirds of the time, and former Vice President Kamala Harris narrowly leading the final stretch of polls, Trump was the first Republican since 2004 to win the popular vote (winning by 2.3 million votes) and the Electoral College, becoming the first president since Grover Cleveland to win non-consecutive terms.
As far as the 2026 midterms go — again, Trump in his second term can constitutionally no longer face voters — Democrats only have a 2.3 percentage point lead in the generic Congressional ballot, 46.1 percent to 43.8 percent.
In 2017 leading into the 2018 midterms, in contrast, Democrats had an 8.2 percentage point lead in the generic Congressional ballot, 44.3 percent to 36.1 percent. And in 2005 leading into the 2006 midterms, Democrats had a 7.3 percentage point lead, 45.7 percent to 38.4 percent.
The difference is while Democrats are polling 1.1 percentage points above average compared to 2005 and 2017, Republicans are polling 6.5 percentage points above average.
Certainly, it’s early and that can change, but the fact is these are the worst Democrats’ midterm polling numbers for when they were in opposition and poised to pick up seats since 2002 when Democrats lost seven House seats following the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, only one of three times the incumbent party picked up seats in the past century, the other two being 1934 and 1998.
In short, Trump and Republicans in fact are currently having some of their best numbers while Democrats in fact are currently having some of their worst numbers.
So, if Schumer and Congressional Democrats’ goal is to “bring down” Trump and Republicans and raise their own fortunes, so far, it’s not going so well. But “keep at it,” Senator Schumer! Stay tuned.
Robert Romano is the Executive Director of Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
