Don’t look now but President Donald Trump’s approval rating is holding steady at 47 percent just a little more than four months into his second term according to the latest average of national polls compiled by RealClearPolling.com.
That is higher than Trump’s entire first term office: In 2017, Trump’s approval averaged 40.5 percent, with disapproval averaging 54 percent. In 2018, it averaged 42.5 percent, with disapproval averaging 53.2 percent. In 2019, it averaged 43.4 percent, with disapproval averaging 53.3 percent. And in 2020, it averaged 44.4 percent, with disapproval averaging 53.1 percent.
In contrast, former President Joe Biden started out with a positive approval rating but was underwater by August 2021, never to return. In 2021, overall, Biden averaged 49.6 percent approval and 45.4 percent. In 2022, he averaged just 41.3 percent approval and 54.2 percent disapproval. In 2023, he had 42.1 percent approval and 53.8 percent disapproval. And in 2024, Biden had just 40.4 percent approval and 56.1 percent disapproval.
So, while Biden’s job performance was generally considered worse and worse the longer he was in office, Trump has consistently shown a tendency to do better in the public’s eyes as he has served in office.
The marked improvement in 2025 follows Trump’s historic election win in 2024 over former Vice President Kamala Harris as the first Republican to win the popular vote since 2004 plus the Electoral College and the GOP winning House and Senate majorities to complete the trifecta.
After spiking in April as capital markets adjusted to President Trump’s reciprocal trade policies, Trump’s disapproval sits at 50 percent.
It’s not unusual for second term presidents to go underwater, for example, George W. Bush and Barack Obama. By May 2005, George W. Bush was underwater on his approval rating, never to return, and by June 2013, so was Barack Obama, but he recovered in 2016.
So far, Trump’s handling of immigration remains his top issue. For example, the latest Economist-YouGov poll taken May 23 to May 26 — which often finds President Trump underwater in his overall approval — finds 48 percent approval for his immigration policies and 48 percent disapproval.
That includes 14 percent of Harris voters approving of Trump on immigration, 13 percent of Democrats, 44 percent of independents and 86 percent of Republicans.
Trump’s relative popularity — 44 percent overall approval in the Economist-YouGov poll — stands in stark contrast to the public’s negative perceptions of the Congressional political parties. Congressional Democrats only viewed favorably by 32 percent of voters, while 57 percent view them unfavorably. Similarly, only 40 percent of voters view Republicans favorably, while 50 percent view them unfavorably.
That can make it somewhat humorous when Democrats appear on television to puff their feathers over Trump’s overall approval. For example, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) on March 19 on PBS News Hour outlined Democrats single-minded goal to “bring down” the President’s approval ratings to hinder his policy agenda, stating, “I am confident that we will bring Trump’s popularity numbers and strength down if we keep at it and keep at it and keep at it.”
Still, Democrats are still retaining a slight advantage in the generic Congressional ballot headed into the 2026 midterms that traditionally favor the opposition party, with Democrats leading by 2.4 percentage points: 46.1 percent for Democrats to 43.7 percent for Republicans. That’s only up ever so slightly from a month ago when it was a 2.3 percentage point lead.
In 2017 leading into the 2018 midterms, in contrast, Democrats had an 8.2 percentage point lead in the generic Congressional ballot, 44.3 percent to 36.1 percent. And in 2005 leading into the 2006 midterms, Democrats had a 7.3 percentage point lead, 45.7 percent to 38.4 percent.
As far as it goes, currently, these are the worst numbers Democrats have seen when they were in opposition and poised to pick up seats since 2002 when Democrats lost seven House seats following the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. That was only one of three times the incumbent party picked up seats in the past century, the other two being 1934 and 1998.
That puts Trump and Republicans in a relatively strong position compared to the 2006 and 2018 political midterm cycles, and they still have not adopted their signature budget and tax cut legislation just yet, with passage expected by July, although it remains to be seen if adopting the legislation, which would extend and expand the 2017 Trump tax cuts, would make a big difference in their political fortunes. Stay tuned.
Robert Romano is the Executive Director of Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
