“The federal surge has had a significant increase on crime in Washington DC. and we greatly appreciate the surge of officers that enhance … what MPD has been able to do… in this city.”
That was Washington, D.C. Democratic Mayor Muriel Bowser on Aug. 28 praising, of all things, President Donald Trump’s activation of the National Guard and declaration of a crime emergency in the city.
The reason? Crime is going down, with Bowser stating that carjackings alone are down 87 percent from this time last year in the 20 days since Trump declared the emergency: “We’ve highlighted the area in yellow that shows the impact of the surge of FBI, DEA, ATF, and park and capital police and other federal agencies in the district. And the federal crime the federal surge has had a significant increase on crime in Washington, D.C. and we greatly appreciate the surge of officers that enhance um what MPD has been able to do uh in this city. The most uh significant thing uh that we are highlighting today is the area of crime that was most troubling for us in 2023.”
It turns out the Metropolitan Police Department of the District of Columbia is understaffed and overworked with many officers working overtime, per Bowser: “And so we continue to do that work um to stabilize and to increase our force strength to what we believe is um where we need to be 3,800 to 4,000 officers… [Y]ou’ve heard me say and I will continue to say we need at least 500 new officers — to hire 500 new officers over the course of the next several years to have the number of officers that we need and to decrease the amount of overtime on that that we use.”
Of course, the fact of more law enforcement on the streets reducing crime is not actually that surprising. To address the violent crime wave of the 1980s, surging police force levels throughout the 1990s and early 2000s were effective at reducing overall violent crime rates, as one would expect, an Americans for Limited Government study of Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) Crime Data Explorer data from 1985 to 2021 shows, with greater numbers of cops correlating with less violent crimes reported and fewer officers leading to more violent crimes reported.
Power abhors a vacuum. That is why the Defund the Police movement after the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis, Minn. in 2020 was so dangerous to the lives and property of urban residents through the country.
In Minnesota, as police forces were reduced statewide in 2020 by 2.7 percent, violent crime shot up by a whopping 16.8 percent. Similarly, as police forces were surged in the 1990s, violent crime dropped dramatically.
In Maryland, the opposite happened. When former Republican Gov. Larry Hogan came into power in 2015, he immediately surged police force levels by 10.1 percent and then kept them steady throughout his administration, with further increases in 2018 and 2019. As a result, violent crimes dropped by 6.7 percent in 2018, 3.2 percent in 2019 and 11.9 percent in 2020.
In Oregon, similar increases in law enforcement personnel throughout the 1990s led to overall drops in violent crimes reported. A drop in personnel in the early 2000s led to an uptick, followed by another surge that led to more decreases in violent crimes. In 2015, as violent crime began increasing, by 2017 police forces were increased by 8.1 percent and kept steady until finally, in 2020, violent crime dropped.
In Washington State, much the same. Surges of police forces in the 1990s and early 2000s were effective at reducing reported violent crimes. A similar uptick in violent crimes began in 2014, and eventually increasing police force levels from 2016 to 2018 led to ultimate drops in violent crimes committed in 2019 and 2020 by 3.8 percent and 3.2 percent.
In New York State, surging police forces beginning in the 1980s and 1990s also led to dramatic drops in violent crimes reported including during Republican Mayor Rudy Giuliani’s tenure in office that ended in 2001. Afterward, decreases in police force levels by 6.5 percent in 2002, 10.3 percent in 2003 and 1.6 percent in 2005 led to the eventual 0.9 percent increase in reported violent crimes in 2005, whereas a 19.2 percent surge of forces in 2004 reduced violent crime by 5.4 percent. Drops in the force levels in the 2010s also led to upticks in reported violent crimes, followed by brief surges that brought the numbers down again.
Similar experiences can be found in cities throughout the country. It’s counterintuitive, but the more police there are, the less likely you are to call the police and report a crime — because fewer crimes will be committed. While defunding and decreasing police presence makes it more likely you will have to encounter the police.
And the numbers seen now in D.C. are undeniable, with violent crime being eliminated in Washington, D.C. and also the National Guard deployment in Los Angeles assisting in putting down the riots there in June.
Now, President Donald Trump is considering other potential National Guard deployments, including in Chicago, Ill, where there were 573 homicides in 2024. As well he should. As will be expected, the Chicago Democratic Mayor Brandon Johnson will complain, as he already is, but the same thing will happen and the violent crimes would drop. Like Mayor Bowser, Johnson and the city of Chicago can thank Trump later.
Robert Romano is the Executive Director of Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
