Another poll is showing the Democrats trailing Republicans in the generic Congressional ballot for 2026 among 2024 voters, this time from the New York Times-Sienna poll taken Sept. 22 to Sept. 27, with 47.4 percent supporting the Republican candidate and 46.2 percent supporting the Democratic candidate with 6.3 percent saying they were undecided or did not know.
Emerson College’s generic ballot question showed the same pattern among 2024 voters, taken Aug. 25 to Aug. 26, with 46.4 percent for the Republican candidate to 44.9 percent for the Democratic candidate and 8.6 percent undecided.
Now, presidential elections are higher turnout affairs than Congressional midterms, so if somebody did not vote in the presidential election, they would be less likely to vote in a Congressional midterm.
Of course, both parties will still be registering new voters during the cycle, although, the White House incumbent party might have even more of an incentive to bring in new blood to offset what should otherwise be Democrats as the opposition party being fired up to vote.
But what we’re seeing at least in this recent polling, besides what must be disappointing numbers once again for Democrats amongst the most likely to vote pool of voters, is that 2024 preferences for voting are largely holding up.
Even with non-voters included in the poll, Democrats only come out ahead of Republicans 47 percent to 45 percent.
In 2006, the average of polls had Democrats leading the generic Congressional ballot 52.1 percent to 40.6 percent, an 11.5 percentage point lead although that overstated the outcome a bit, with Democrats winning the House popular vote 52 percent to 44 percent.
And in 2018, the average of polls had Democrats ahead, 49.7 percent to 42.4 percent, a 7.3 percentage point lead, and Democrats won with 53.3 percent to 44.9 percent.
Whereas, today, in the average of polls, Democrats only lead 46.7 percent to 43.3 percent in the Congressional ballot for 2026, a 3.4 percentage point lead. That is way off pace from where you would expect the opposition party to be headed into the midterms.
Meaning, Democrats, who should be in a better position to win off-year elections, may be more vulnerable than usual to an upset.
And is it any wonder?
Just this month, Congressional Democrats are demanding that taxpayer-funded health care via Medicaid and insurance subsidies for millions of illegal aliens that was finally prohibited in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act be reinstated or else they’ll continue filibuster funding the government. As of this writing, a partial government shutdown looms, where non-excepted employees might be furloughed or laid off completely via reductions in force unless Congress acts.
Democrats seem to think a government shutdown favors them and that it is a winning issue. We’ll see.
Of all issues, in 2024, besides inflation, Democrats’ failure to address illegal immigration was one of the principal reasons President Donald Trump was reelected. Is that what Democrats really want the American people to be talking about? Oh well.
Now, when opposition to President Trump should be reaching certain heights, Democrats via the government funding fight appear determined to remind voters why they voted for Trump and Republican majorities in the first place, with 2026 hanging in the balance. Stay tuned.
Robert Romano is the Executive Director of Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
