The race for the governor’s seat in New Jersey between Democratic U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli has tightened dramatically, according to latest polling by Emerson College and The Hill taken Sept. 22 to Sept. 23, with the race statistically tied 43 percent to 43 percent. It’s a horserace.
The news comes following the Sept. 21 televised debate between the two candidates, and could be the first indication of Democrats underperforming in the race compared to prior cycles. It’s a pretty blue state, and so any sign of weakness is noteworthy.
Usually, with a Republican in the White House in modern history, as now with President Donald Trump fresh off his 2024 win, the opposition Democrats will do better in the off-year races that follow including the Congressional midterms, a cycle that decidedly should favor Democrats. It works the opposite way too, with Republicans having overperformed in 2009 with Barack Obama in the White House, when Chris Christie won, and in 2021 with Joe Biden in the White House, when Ciattarelli also ran and came close to unseating incumbent Governor Phil Murphy.
President Donald Trump also overperformed in the state in 2024, only losing by 6 points, compared to 14 points in 2016 and 16 points in 2020, when he lost by 14 points and 16 points, respectively.
To be fair, in 2024 there was a national trend, where the President overperformed pretty much everywhere, as Trump went on to be the first Republican to win the popular vote since 2004 in route to his victory over former Vice President Kamala Harris. 2025 might be testing what the lasting impacts of that victory are, if anything, in a state that almost always favors Democrats.
Is there an overall shift in the electorate of New Jersey that may now be turning up in state and local races?
A hint could come in the Emerson-Hill poll, which shows 2024 Kamala Harris voters twice as likely to be undecided at 13.5 percent compared to 2024 Donald Trump voters at 5.8 percent. Ciattarelli gets 88 percent of Trump voters while Sherrill is only scoring 80 percent of Harris voters. Wow!
The weakness Sherrill is showing might be hangover from 2024, when Democrats lagged on the economy — still the top issue among voters far and away — and might still be blamed for the persistent inflation that began in 2021.
Interestingly, among individuals who did not vote in 2024, Ciattarelli now leads Sherrill slightly, 33 percent to 27 percent, although one must wonder about the likelihood of non-voters from a presidential cycle to show up for the off-year election. Nationally, Democrats have led among non-voters in Emerson’s polling on the generic Congressional ballot, so a sudden shift to Republicans in that category is also noteworthy.
As it is, when you’re coming from behind as a Republican must in a blue state like New Jersey, newly registered voters might be the only salvation. Sherrill could be vulnerable, and if you’re numerically disadvantaged, you at least need some Democrats to cross over and vote for the Republican — and you need new blood.
For Democrats, they should be reaching maximal opposition following their national electoral losses in 2024. They should be energized and so likely will still show up in November for Sherrill. The story would be if they didn’t show up in a cycle that clearly favors Democrats.
But right now, if you’re Ciattarelli, at least with this poll following a successful debate, you feel like you’ve got a shot — a puncher’s chance — to catch Democrats in New Jersey. This could be a race to watch in November.
Robert Romano is the Executive Director of Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
