On Nov. 20, 2021, former President Joe Biden was already underwater in his approval rating, just 41 percent approving and 53 percent disapproving, according to the average of national polls compiled by RealClearPolling.com at the time.
Now, just four years later, President Donald Trump finds himself in a very similar situation, with just 42.5 percent of Americans approving of his job performance and 54.6 percent disapproving, according to the same average of national polls being taken now.
Back then, one in five Democrats and a majority of independents were disapproving of Biden, and today it’s about the same situation but with the parties have changed: Now it is one in five Republicans and a majority of independents disapproving of Trump.
For Biden, in 2021, there was a combination of rising inflation and foreign policy weakness. By November 2021, consumer inflation had already risen to 6.8 percent, later peaking at 9.1 percent by June 2022. And Biden was still dealing with the fallout of the botched military withdrawal from Afghanistan and soon had another crisis as Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022.
Minus the inflation and perhaps the Afghanistan issue would not have appeared as prominent. Suffice to say, inflation kept rising and Biden first hit peak disapproval at 57 percent as the inflation was peaking in spring 2022.
But then the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade creating an avenue for states to regulate abortion again, and then Biden experienced a nine-month recovery in approval — nearly beating the midterm jinx in the House only losing nine seats, and beating it in the Senate by picking up a seat — to the beginning of 2023, peaking at 44.7 percent in February 2023, as the inflation numbers started slowing down. Then Biden’s approval and disapproval gap started widening again significantly.
As it turned out, confidence lost was never regained. Biden went underwater in August 2021 never to return and ultimately was ousted by his own party very late in the 2024 election when it was clear he would lose handily to President Trump, who won anyway against former Vice President Kamala Harris.
Whereas, today, inflation has been cooling since its 9.1 percent peak in June 2022, and today is down to 3 percent annually. Comparatively, President Trump has foreign policy accomplishments, for example, the recent successfully negotiated ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, although there’s an argument to be made that the reciprocal tariffs internationally have not proven to be popular.
That said, looking forward, unlike in 2022 when inflation was peaking, in 2026, inflation is expected to continue to cool down significantly to about 2.6 percent, according to the Federal Reserve’s latest economic projections.
Whether that helps Trump politically is actually a great question. Post June 2022, inflation was slowing and Biden’s approval rating was improving until February 2023, at which point inflation was 6 percent. Then, inflation kept cooling — by January 2024 it had slowed to 3.1 percent — but Biden’s approval rating just started worsening again all the way until he left office with a 57 percent disapproval rating.
What to make of Biden’s collapse even as inflation cooled? Biden did the textbook political thing and argued, well it was 9 percent, then it was 6 percent and then it was 3 percent. It did slow down. But perhaps all the voters heard was 9 + 6 + 3 = 18 — because prices never actually decreased, they kept increasing at a slower pace. Now, certain items are still more unaffordable than they’ve ever been, for example housing, with average home prices up to $423,000.
And it keeps clobbering the incumbents, which has been happening a lot lately. Really going back to 2018, when Republicans lost the House. Then in 2020, the Covid recession struck and the incumbent Republicans lost the U.S. House, Senate and White House. In 2021, Virginia Democrats lost the Governor’s mansion as the post-Covid inflation ramped up. In 2022, Democrats lost the U.S. House and in 2024, they lost the House, Senate and White House. Then in 2025, Virginia Republicans lost the Governor’s mansion. And in New York City and Seattle, insurgent Democratic Party socialists defeated incumbent, established Democrats.
That’s almost a decade of discontent—as both Trump and then Biden dealt with the fallout from the Covid asteroid striking the global economy, locking everything down and then showering the world with trillions of helicopter money as production ground to a halt. The recession and then its ensuing inflation keeps defeating the incumbents, and with the Congressional midterms less than a year away, that might not yet be improving. Stay tuned.
Robert Romano is the Executive Director of Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
