The race for Congress in 2026 is closer than you might think, a new poll from Reuters-Ipsos taken Dec. 3 to Dec. 8 shows, with Democrats only favored over Republicans 40 percent to 39 percent. Or is it really that close?
A month ago, the nation saw similar polling in New Jersey prior to the election, that things were close — the RealClearPolling.com average of polls had the race for governor only separated by 3 points — until election night and then they weren’t.
As it turned out, Democrat Mikie Sherrill got 56 percent of the vote compared to Republican Jack Ciattarelli with 43 percent, a 13-point rout.
The only poll that mattered was the one on Election Day.
The fact is, every test at the polls since November has shown Democrats overperforming their 2024 presidential performance in New Jersey by 4 points, Virginia by 5 points, Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District by 7 points (although the Democrat still lost) and now Miami, Fla. overperformed the 2021 mayor’s race by 47 points, where a Democrat just won the mayor’s race for the first time since 1997.
Republicans only won the House of Representatives in 2024 with 49.8 percent of the vote to Democrats’ 47.2 percent, just 2.6 points separating the two parties.
And Democrats in 2025 are consistently overperforming their showing in 2024 consistently across several states, districts and municipalities when testing the current electorate — by an average of 5 points leaving the Miami race out of the equation — but we’re to believe that the national race for Congress is separated by a single point?
Something doesn’t add up there and it might be the poll.
Now, maybe if you go to voters right now and ask them how they’re feeling, things appear closer, but on the ground we’re still seeing disproportionate turnout for Democrats typical of an off-year and midterm cycle with a Republican in the White House.
In which case, as with the Reuters-Ipsos poll, it’s very close on paper, but the result of the polls is only to offer false comfort for the GOP.
Even if the polls were right, it won’t matter if Republicans cannot turn out greater numbers when it actually comes to voting. Happy talk doesn’t win elections. Complacency is the worst enemy of all.
Robert Romano is the Executive Director of Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
