Americans’ outlook on the U.S. economy continued to improve in January, with 49 percent saying the economy was strong in the latest Harvard-Harris poll taken Jan. 28 to Jan. 29, compared to 43 percent in November and 47 percent in December. Those saying the economy was weak fell from 57 percent in November to 53 percent in December to 51 percent in January.
In addition, those who say their financial situation is getting worse fell from 45 percent in November and 42 percent in December to 40 percent in January. Of particular interest, independents who said their financial situation was getting worse fell from 53 percent in December down to 46 percent in January.
And those who said it was getting better rose from 32 percent November and 34 percent in December to 35 percent in January. Of independents, getting better rose from 23 percent in November and December to 25 percent in January.
That’s improvement but it also underscores that in general, the American people, particularly independents are still rather sour on their economic outlook, with more than a 20-point spread between getting worse and getting better.
The reason for that appears to be entirely centered on the long recovery from the inflation that began in 2021 and peaked in 2022.
The top issue in the Harvard-Harris poll remains inflation, at 43 percent, including 42 percent of Democrats, 40 percent of Republicans and 46 percent of independents.
In fact, if consumer inflation at its current level growing 2.7 percent the last twelve months and nominal average weekly earnings growing 3.75 percent — earnings have been outpacing prices since mid-2023 — then break-even from the Biden-era inflation will not occur until about mid-2027, according to an Americans for Limited Government Foundation analysis of BLS data.
That may not be enough time for 2026, with Democrats expected to do well in the Congressional midterms with the political winds favoring the opposition party, but still more than enough time for 2028, when they shift back to favor the incumbent party which has only been in power since 2025. First terms are a bit of a blank slate so there is slightly more latitude, but not much, and each election is a referendum on how voters feel about the incumbents.
In other words, the American people still remember that things were much better in the economy during the first Trump administration before Covid, whereas nothing has been the same since then. Negative attitudes are sticky. But so are positive ones, especially once they overtake the trend, as they eventually tend to.
Beyond politics, what’s most important is that the numbers continue move in the right direction, with incomes outpacing inflation as they have since mid-2023—even if Republicans or President Donald Trump do not immediately benefit from it. Things are getting better, the American people are starting to notice — but it’s still going to take more time. Stay tuned.
Robert Romano is the Executive Director of Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
