“Winter of Our Discontent?”
That was Rasmussen Reports’ Feb. 7 post on X.com showing their latest polling finding President Donald Trump with just a 41 percent approval rating Feb.1 to Feb. 5, compared to a week prior, when it was 46 percent. And disapproval rose from 53 percent to 57 percent.
That’s not great, and marks both a low for approval and a high for disapproval recorded by Rasmussen in Trump’s second term so far since Jan. 2025. The news comes as Congressional Democrats have widened their lead in the generic Congressional ballot over Republicans, 47.7 percent to 42.5 percent, now a 5.2 percentage point margin, in the latest national average of polls compiled by RealClearPolling.com.
In fact, out of 143 polls taken this cycle so far, Democrats have led 127 of them, or 88.8 percent. Republicans have only led nine, or 6.2 percent, and seven were tied, or 4.9 percent.
Compare that to 2022, when Republicans led 146 out of 297 polls, or 49.15 percent of the polls taken for that cycle. Democrats only led 127 of those, or 42.7 percent and 24 were tied, or 8.1 percent. Republicans went on to win the House narrowly 222 to 213, with the popular vote 50 percent to 47.3 percent.
So, not only the President’s approval but certainly Congressional polling should have Republicans — who only command a 218 to 214 majority — worried about maintaining control of at least the House in November.
As it is, the President’s party tends to lose greater numbers of seats in midterms with lower presidential approval, an Americans for Limited Government Foundation analysis finds.
President Trump has said maybe he needs better public relations people but he has the bully pulpit. He is 100 percent in control of this outcome. However, the President may distrust polls given the fact they failed to predict him winning in 2016 and 2024 and thus may be adverse to pleas from advisors to help improve these numbers.
Further cultivating that would be that his approval has always been low dating back to his first term that began in 2017. Almost always underwater. So why bother? If the President can win without the polls, then they don’t matter, right?
For those concerned with policies, the constant uphill political battle can be a disappointing outcome, since they represent a highly ambitious, and thus far successful agenda. Policies are the most important thing presidents do. So, the President and his party should be rewarded, right? But Trump warned us there’d be “too much winning”. He always has a witty explanation for why it rolls this way. Maybe that’s how he’s been doing this his entire life.
Interestingly, this is all a reflection and a product of the President’s leadership style. He doesn’t care what anyone thinks about him, except perhaps for his family, and so tends to make the decisions he believes that most benefit the nation, with politics appearing to be only a secondary consideration. So, you get great policies but also the double-edged sword of acting impulsively in messaging.
The President makes gaffes, in fact, all presidents do. They’re not often fatal but in Trump’s case, after a decade on the political scene, there could always be the death of a thousand cuts. Even if the President was perfect 95 percent of the time, successfully using the bully pulpit to direct the news cycle and national discussion, that would also mean that about once every 10 days or so, there will be a gaffe that predictably dominates the news cycle, for example with a recent Truth Social video about election integrity that had a meme of the Obamas depicted as primates.
When that was revealed, it was taken down. The President said he hadn’t watched the entire video and neither had his team apparently when it was posted. So, by all accounts, he didn’t mean to post that version of the video, it will soon be forgotten for the most part, but it still unnecessarily knocked the White House off its message for a day or two.
It’s been like this for a long time. Maybe a few or several things appear to be going right from a policy perspective, the White House appears to have momentum, the President builds up some political capital and then it’s promptly spent and sometimes not in a useful way.
Supporters tend to sidestep all that noise because it’s a distraction from the core policy mission. Look at results dispassionately, measure and report the numbers and outcomes. Others pretend the missteps are all a part of the show. Or, just take them as a given and then go look up the latest border numbers, the crime rate, how much sooner till we break even from the Biden inflation, etc. just about everything that shows that, over time, things are improving thanks to President Trump’s incredible leadership. What else is there to do?
But the midterms are coming fast with the clock potentially running out on the Trump legislative agenda. The House majority is simply not big enough to withstand an average midterm cycle of losses, and the President’s approval is nowhere near high enough to even come close to beating the jinx, as was done in 1934, 1998 and 2002 the incumbent picked up seats and all three were extremely popular presidents at the time.
President Trump often reminds of having a quarterback who is always playing from behind and when it matters, stages fourth quarter and overtime comebacks that appear miraculous. I attended the Monday Night Miracle game in 2000, so this can feel dazzling and exhilarating but also exhausting. The problem with always playing from behind is eventually your luck runs out.
Then, your margin of victory is always razor thin, just like the GOP’s current majority. It was enough to get the tax cuts and then the One Big Beautiful Bill which is the administration’s crown jewel legislatively. Can they get another budget done to build on that? That’d be nice and maybe it would help.
The good news (or bad news depending on your perspective) is President Trump is 100 perspective in control of this outcome. Every president is. There are some exigent circumstances, especially the economy, that can intervene and there really is no way of talking your way out of it. And yet, it must be addressed.
For example, break-even from the Biden era inflation at current rates for earnings versus prices — with earning growing at 3.7 percent and inflation now down to 2.7 percent — seems to be mid-2027 (the inflation began in 2021 and began slowing in the second half of 2022 and incomes did not start growing faster until mid-2023). In the past the President has said things like “we’re not satisfied” and so they’d keep grinding the inflation away via good policies. I think that’s the correct approach. Making progress, but not satisfied. In the meantime, Republicans desperately need the President to get on message — and stay there.
The President has to understand even if he’s technically not on the ballot, Democrats and independents who will vote in November are already acting as if he is and so will turn out in greater numbers. Embrace it, Mr. President.
That’s why midterms by constitutional design, Madison’s scheme of Congressional elections every two years, have always been such a perilous affair for incumbents. Every election is a referendum on the incumbent. You’re the incumbent. Put yourself and your party on the ballot consciously because that’s the real world and you’re a realist.
Public approval isn’t just about vanity, it is directly tied to the President’s party and long-term political survival, and therefore how successful and how big of a legacy the President will be able to leave. I know the President deeply cares about the legacy and future he is leaving for all of our children, and so I believe he needs to care at least a little about how he is perceived. I know he can do better. Just stay on message, Mr. President. Good luck.
Robert Romano is the Executive Director of Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
