Texas Democrats got more voters to the polls for their Senate primary than Republicans did, 2.22 million to 2.07 million with Democrat James Talarico defeating U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett 1.17 million to 1.02 million, while incumbent Republican Sen. John Cornyn garnered about 865,000 votes to challengers Attorney General Ken Paxton who got 849,000 and U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt who got 278,000, according to Texas Secretary of State results.
As a result of the state’s rules, Talarico who got a clear majority will proceed to the general election in November while Cornyn and Paxton now go to a May 26 runoff.
In 2018, another Congressional midterm cycle that favored Democrats nationally with Republican President Donald Trump in office, Democrat Beto O’Rourke overperformed in Texas against Republican Ted Cruz, with Cruz narrowly winning 4.26 million to 4.04 million, or 50.9 percent to 48.3 percent.
That came after 1.54 million voted in the Republican primary and 1.03 million in the Democratic primary.
Meaning, in 2026, Democrats increased their primary turnout by 115 percent to 2.22 million, more than the roughly 2.08 million who voted in the 2020 Democratic presidential primary in Texas. Republicans increased their turnout, too, but only by 34 percent to 2.07 million, far less than the 2.8 million who voted in the 2016 Republican presidential primary in Texas.
While not necessarily determinative — at the end of the day President Donald Trump easily won Texas in 2024 over former Vice President Kamala Harris, 6.39 million to 4.83 million, or 56 percent 42.46 percent, wherein 11.38 million voted — turnout always declines in Congressional midterms.
So, in 2016, 8.97 million Texans voted in the general election that Trump won over Hillary Clinton in Texas, 4.68 million to 3.87 million, or 52.2 percent to 43.2 percent. And then in 2018, turnout in the Senate election won by Cruz was 8.37 million, a 6.6 percent drop.
Here’s the thing, in 2018 Beto O’Rourke at 4.04 million votes actually overperformed Clinton’s 2016 performance of 3.87 million, a 4.4 percent increase. The drop occurred entirely among Republicans, from Trump 4.68 million to Cruz’ 4.26 million, an 8.9 percent decrease.
If the same thing happens in the general election, the Republican candidate, either Cornyn or Paxton, might expect to get 5.8 million votes, and Talarico might expect to see 5.04 million votes.
It’d still be a Republican win, but judging by O’Rourke’s overperformance in 2018 — Cruz only won by about 220,000 votes — it’s not something the GOP can necessarily take for granted, whether it’s Cornyn or Paxton on the ballot in November, they’re going to have to spend a lot of money. As usual, stay tuned.
Robert Romano is the Executive Director of Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
