While the war with Iran has taken a toll on President Donald Trump’s approval rating, Republicans have not yet suffered in the generic congressional ballot by as much as readers might expect. In fact, it is Democrats that have suffered losses among core constituencies including young people since the Iran conflict began.
President Trump’s approval rating has been closely tied to the conflict with Iran, with polls showing that the conflict and the impact on fuel prices due to the seven-week closure of the Strait of Hormuz took six percentage points off his approval rating since early March.
President Trump’s approval rating is underwater by 17.2 points in the latest Real Clear Polling average, after being underwater by 11.2 percentage points in early March as the nation began to digest the Iran conflict which began Feb. 28.
President Trump is still negotiating to get the conflict with Iran resolved and the Strait of Hormuz reopened safely, with the White House hosting preliminary talks with Israeli and Lebanese officials Thursday afternoon. The naval blockade of Iran has challenged the U.S. ceasefire with Iran, making it more difficult to reopen the Strait of Hormuz safely, but the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon has been extended by another three weeks on April 23.
While President Trump’s underwater approval rating is certainly a negative for Republicans leading into the midterm cycle, the Republican Party hasn’t suffered substantially in the generic congressional ballot yet.
The impact of the Iran war on the GOP has been much more modest according to polling. While Democrats have been incrementally gaining an advantage over the GOP in the generic congressional ballot all year — as is expected given that they are the out of power party with a Republican president suffering from low approval ratings — the Iran war hasn’t substantially propelled Democrats forward.
In fact, polling shows Republicans have lost only marginally with swing voters, and it is Democrats who have lost a core constituency since the conflict began. Young people are vowing to sit out the midterms or vote third party at a higher rate and promising to support Democrats by eleven points less in late April than they were in early March.
In the latest Real Clear Polling average, Democrats lead Republicans by 5.7 points, a shift from earlier in the year but not a large one. In mid-January, Democrats led by 4.7 percentage points. On March 9, eleven days after the conflict with Iran began, Democrats led by 4.4 points. Despite the Iran conflict and impact on fuel prices, Democrats have added just 1.3 percentage points to their lead in the generic congressional ballot since early March.
Where have Republicans held their ground with voters, and where have they lost ground? Looking at the latest Economist/YouGov survey from April 17-20 and comparing that to the survey from March 6-9, as polls began to absorb the impact of the Iran conflict, Republicans have lost modest ground swing voters.
Republicans lost a single percentage point with women according to the Economist/YouGov survey. In the March 6-9 survey, with the impact of the Iran conflict reverberating through the country, 31 percent of women planned to vote GOP in November, and that number sits at 30 percent in the April 17-20 survey. Democrats lost no ground with women but didn’t gain any either, with 43 percent planning to support Democrats in early March and the same share planning to support Democrats in late April.
While Republicans lost three percentage points among White voters, going from 45 percent to 42 percent, Democrats lost four points, going from 37 percent of the White vote to 33 percent. The share of White voters saying they would vote third party, aren’t sure, or would not vote, rose by six points, absorbing both Democrat and Republican leaners.
Republicans lost moderate ground with both Black and Hispanic voters, but the declines have been relatively small. The GOP lost three points with Black voters since March 6-9. Democrats didn’t lose ground with Black voters, but almost a third of Black voters (31 percent) say they would vote third party, aren’t sure, or would not vote, up from 27 percent in March.
The GOP lost three points with Hispanics, going from 27 percent of their vote in early March to 24 percent in late April. Democrats lost two points, going from 43 percent to 41 percent. A full 35 percent of Hispanics say they would vote third party, aren’t sure, or would not vote up from 31 percent.
Among young voters, Republicans lost four percentage points since the conflict with Iran began, but Democrats lost more than twice that. In the March 6-9 survey, 24 percent of Gen Z voters planned to vote Republican in November, but that number is down four points to 20 percent in the April 17-20 survey. Democrats have lost more ground.
In the March 6-9 survey, a robust 48 percent of Gen Z planned to vote Democrat, but that number is down to 37 percent. Those Democrat losses among voters under thirty have translated directly to young people saying they would vote third party, aren’t sure, or would not vote, according to the data. The share of Gen Z saying they are undecided, would vote third party, or would sit out the midterms rose from 29 percent in early March to 43 percent in late April, a fourteen-point increase.
The Iran war has impacted President Donald Trump’s approval rating, not strictly due to the conflict itself but due to the rise in fuel prices that have resulted from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. While the president’s increasing disapproval rating heading into the midterms is certainly an issue for Republicans, voters do not appear to be punishing the GOP for the conflict with Iran. In fact, the largest change since the conflict began has been young voters saying they are undecided or plan to vote third party or not at all, and much of that loss has come at the expense of Democrats. However, Republicans are still facing an uphill battle in an off-year election with inflation continuing to loom in the minds of the electorate. Resolving the Iran conflict and the resulting drop in fuel prices will certainly help. The Iran conflict, though it is a Republican President attempting to end it through force, has not resulted in more strength for Democrats as past wars have.
Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
