Republican Clay Fuller on April 7 easily won his election bid in a special election runoff in Georgia’s 14th Congressional District over Democrat Shawn Harris, 55.9 percent to 44.1 percent, or 72,304 votes to 57,030 as of this writing.
That had followed a March 10 jungle primary for the seat that had been vacated by former U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), wherein Republicans garnered about 60 percent of the vote compared to challengers including Democrats garnering about 40 percent.
As a result, Republicans will run up to 218 seats plus 1 independent who conferences with them, to Democrats’ 214 seats.
When Greene ran in 2024, she won with 64.4 percent of the vote over Harris who garnered 35.6 percent. So, in the first round of voting, there was about a 4.4-point drop off for Republicans towards Democrats, and then in the runoff, there was another 4.1-point drop off, for a total of a 8.5-point drop off in 2026 from the 2024 level towards Democrats.
While some pundits would like to make hay out of that, it’s perfectly normal for there to be such drop offs in support from the White House incumbent party, in this case Republicans.
In 2017, while there were no special House elections in Tennessee, nationally there were five races in seats Republicans held: Kansas’ 4th Congressional District, Montana’s At-Large Congressional District, Geogia’s 6th Congressional District, South Carolina’s 5th Congressional District and Utah’s 3rd Congressional District. There were drop-offs of 8.5 points, 6.25 points, 9.9 points, 8.16 points and 15.5 points, respectively, from the presidential election year performance in those same districts.
In 2016, Republicans for those seats averaged 62.26 percent of the vote for those districts, but in the 2017 special House elections, they only averaged 52.6 percent, almost a 10-point drop-off with the Republican president in the White House compared to the prior presidential election.
And in 2025, there were three special House elections in Republican-held seats in Florida’s 1st and 6th Congressional districts and Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District. In 2024, Republicans averaged 63.9 percent of the vote for those seats, and in the special elections averaged 55.8 percent, an average 8.1 point drop off.
Well, in the first round of voting in Georgia, there was only a 4.4 point drop off. Conceivably, if there hadn’t been a jungle primary, the Republican would have garnered 60 percent of the vote. (The other special elections Instead there was two rounds of voting, with each round makes it just a little bit easier for the opposition party to steal a seat they otherwise would have no chance of winning in a general election.
So, basically, nothing to see there. Republicans in Georgia in 2026 overperformed compared to other special elections in 2025 and 2017 with a Republican in the White House. There will be some drop off for Republican seats again in November again, favoring Democrats, as is usual in the Congressional midterms — the question will be by how much. Stay tuned.
Robert Romano is the Executive Director of Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
