The most populous state in the country is locked in a battle to count thousands of absentee ballots that will determine the outcome of Tuesday’s gubernatorial race, but California appears to have voted GOP candidate Steve Hilton into the November runoff, giving Republicans a chance to win the governor’s mansion for the first time since 2006.
While a vast number of absentee ballots are still being counted, on election night Hilton not only made it into the top two candidates, ousting climate activist Tom Steyer, but beat the top Democrat in the race, former Health and Human Services Secretary under Joe Biden Xavier Becerra.
In the early hours of Wednesday morning with 54.4 percent of votes tallied, Hilton appeared to have narrowly beaten Becerra, far outperforming pre-election polls that showed him taking a distant second place.
As of this writing, 72 percent of votes have been counted with thousands of absentee ballots still need to be counted, NBC News data shows Becerra with 27.2 percent, Hilton with 25.9 percent of the vote, while and Steyer with 19.8 percent. Chad Bianco, another Republican candidate, earns 10.6 percent.
CalMatters estimates that California could take thirteen days to count all the ballots and several weeks to certify the results. Part of why the count could take so long is that after the pandemic California enacted policies that push absentee voting, with every registered voter sent an absentee ballot regardless of whether they requested one. This drove up absentee votes and has created an extremely long counting process.
California counties have thirteen days after the election to finish their counts, after Assembly Bill 5 was signed into law last year. County officials have 30 days to finalize the results, meaning the results may not be available until mid-June or later.
That said, Hilton’s performance on election night sent a strong signal that California voters are ready for change in leadership.
President Donald Trump, who endorsed Hilton in April, congratulated him for his strong showing on election night, posting on Truth Social Wednesday, “if Californians are smart, which I know they are, they will put Steve into the Governor’s Mansion”.
“Congratulations to Steve Hilton on coming in first, last night, in the California Vote for Governor”, President Trump wrote. “If Californians are smart, which I know they are, they will put Steve into the Governor’s Mansion, and watch their State get better at a rate that has probably never been seen before.”
While Democrats could still succeed in pushing Becerra into the governor’s mansion, keeping the state in the clutches of failed liberal policies on crime, taxes, homelessness and immigration, Hilton emerging in the top two indicates Californians are ready for change in November.
California’s thirst for change shouldn’t be surprising either. A CBS News/YouGov survey of 1,479 registered voters conducted April 21-23 found California voters are demanding change from Gov. Gavin Newsom’s agenda.
The survey found 35 percent of voters said they wanted a governor whose policies were “very different” from Newsom’s. A scarce twelve percent of the state said they wanted a governor whose polices were “very similar” to Newsom’s.
The survey also found California voters rejecting the tax-and-spend direction of the state, with the largest share of likely voters — 45 percent — saying cutting taxes should be the top priority for the new governor of California. Another 32 percent said building housing, and 23 percent said attracting new business to the state.
Combined, 68 percent of registered voters said they wanted the new governor to prioritize reducing the tax burden and making California more business friendly.
Key groups of swing voters said they wanted the new governor of California to prioritize reducing the tax burden including a plurality of Hispanics (54 percent), women (48 percent), and moderates (48 percent).
The desire for conservative leadership could also play out in U.S. House races this fall. According to the Cook Political Report 2026 House Ratings updated June 3, five of the most competitive House districts in the country are in California.
Cook identified CA-06 (currently held by Republican Kevin Kiley), CA-13 (currently held by Democrat Adam Gray), CA-22 (currently held by Republican David Valadao), CA-45 (currently held by Democrat Derek Tran) and CA-48 (currently held by Republican Darrell Issa) as five of the most competitive races in the country.
With a significant number of California voters signaling their unrest with Democrat leadership in the gubernatorial race, Democrats will need to play offence in CA-13 and CA-45. Republicans meanwhile are defending three seats.
Once the absentee ballots are counted in the gubernatorial race it is highly likely Hilton will remain in the top two, possibly beating Becerra for first place. This gives conservatives the chance to wrench the governor’s mansion from Democrat control for the first time since 2011, when former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger completed his second term. There is still the possibility that once the mass of ballots flood in Hilton drops into third place though that would no doubt spark concern about election integrity.
As the picture stands now, Hilton vastly outperformed expectations on election night. A final Emerson College poll released June 1 showed Becerra leading the field with 28 percent of the vote, Steyer with 22 percent, Hilton securing 21 percent and Chad Bianco winning twelve percent of the vote. On election night, Hilton took the lead and remains in the lead as of this writing.
Hilton’s strong performance indicates a significant share of California voters are hungry for change. This desire for change has implications not only for GOP chances in competitive House districts in November but also impacts the way the rest of the country could view a potential presidential run from outgoing Gov. Gavin Newsom. If a large share of California voters reject passing the torch from Newsom to Becerra, that impacts how the rest of the country views the liberal experiment on taxes, transportation, immigration, and homelessness in California.
Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
