Since Ohio voted for President Donald Trump in 2016, 2020, and again in 2024, the battleground state has highlighted the impact of white, non-college voters who have overwhelmingly supported the GOP in recent election cycles.
Working-class voters remain strongly aligned with conservatives in Ohio, but white college-educated voters have also swung toward the right since 2024 and could help Republicans fend off a Democrat attack in the contentious U.S. Senate race this November.
Despite President Trump beating Kamala Harris in Ohio by over 11 percentage points in 2024, white college-educated voters shied away from the GOP. President Trump narrowly lost white college-educated voters by three points, 48 percent to 51 percent in 2024. President Trump lost white college-educated voters by a larger six-point margin in 2020, 46 percent to 52 percent.
However, college-educated whites are showing a steep decline in support for Democrats in the latest New York Times/Siena College survey on the U.S. Senate race between former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown and Republican Sen. Jon Husted.
Among likely Ohio voters, Husted leads Brown by three percentage points, 50 percent to 47 percent, making the race extremely close. One key reason appears to be a significant shift among white college-educated voters away from Democrats since 2024.
Sherrod Brown’s lead among white voters with a degree has shrunk by fourteen percentage points since the 2024 senate race among white college-educated voters according to the survey. Brown went from a comfortable lead of nineteen points in Times/Siena polling released before the 2024 election to a lead of only five points now.
The survey shows Brown leading among college-educated whites by only five points, 51 percent to 46 percent. Two years ago, Brown led among college-educated whites by nineteen points, 57 percent to 38 percent.
The share of white college-educated voters willing to support the Republican for U.S. Senate has increased by eight points since 2024, going from 38 percent to 46 percent in the latest survey.
Non-college whites also remain solidly in the Republican camp, planning to support Sen. Jon Husted by 26 points, 61 percent to 35 percent. Two years ago, non-college whites planned to support GOP challenger Bernie Moreno over Sherrod Brown by 21 percentage points.
The share of college-educated whites who identify as Democrats has declined by six percentage points since 2024, going from 37 percent to 31 percent. At the same time, the share of white college-educated voters identifying as Republican has risen seven points from 28 percent to 35 percent.
While college-educated whites disapprove of many of President Trump’s policies including his handling of inflation and the conflict with Iran, President Trump earns support from a sizable share of whites with a college degree on immigration and tariffs. 44 percent of white voters with a college degree approve of President Trump’s approach to immigration, the highest approval rating he has for any issue in the survey. However, 56 percent disapprove.
Thirty-seven percent of college educated whites approve of President Trump’s implementation of tariffs (though 62 percent disapprove).
So why the shift toward the GOP? The survey shows white college-educated voters are beginning to view the Democratic Party as too extreme, with this once reliably Democrat voter bloc saying by 42 points, 53 percent to 11 percent, the Democratic Party is too far to the left. Another 35 percent say the party is neither too far to the left or the right.
Combine this view that the Democratic Party is too extreme with the fact that a sizable share of whites with college degrees support President Donald Trump’s approach to two key issues, immigration and tariffs, and a nuanced picture emerges. White college-educated voters were wooed by the Democratic Party’s promises in past election cycles, but the left may have reached its peak in its ability to court these voters in Ohio.
Interestingly, we saw a similar splitting of the educated white voter coalition in the recent gubernatorial race in California, where GOP candidate Steve Hilton flipped multiple wealthy educated counties along the coast. It will be interesting to watch for this trend in other races across the country. One takeaway is clear: a sizeable share of white educated voters have had enough of the Democratic Party’s open borders and weak approach to trade, and with the right incentives they could move toward the Republican Party.
Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
