With the midterm election two months away, Democrats are maintaining an advantage of over five points in the latest generic congressional ballot average — an average that includes both likely voters and U.S. adults depending on the survey — but there are reasons to believe Democrats may not have the midterms in the bag to the degree they think they do.
For one, President Donald Trump recently called out “fake polls.” In a Truth Social post from Aug. 30, President Trump accused the media of adding to its well-documented track record of underestimating conservative strength in polling and suggested the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) may want to look at television and radio over-the-air licenses for stations that publish what the President is calling “fake polls.”
Second, for the first time since February, a mainstream poll shows Republicans ahead in the generic congressional ballot among likely voters.
In the latest Harvard-Harris poll conducted Aug. 28–30, Republicans are ahead of Democrats among likely voters 51 percent to 49 percent. The poll is arguably a high-level poll because it was conducted among 2,100 registered voters. The survey also shows an uptick in the share of voters (37 percent) who say the country is on the right track, a two-point increase from July.
This is the first mainstream poll of likely voters to show Republicans ahead since the Napolitan News Service-RMG Research survey conducted Feb. 9–12. This close to the midterm election, we would expect to see Democrats’ lead widening, but instead, the reverse appears to be happening at least in some polls.
Third, and perhaps most alarming for Democrats leading into November and beyond, is the fact that the Democratic Party’s campaign against President Trump and the GOP appears to have created mass apathy among the very voters they hoped to ignite.
When comparing Economist-YouGov data from March 6–9 of this year to polling released Aug. 28–30, there are massive, double-digit declines in the share of swing voters that plan to vote in November at all.
While Democrats hold a 5.7-point lead in the latest generic congressional ballot data, a huge portion of the electorate compared to in March, particularly young people, minorities, and independents, are telling pollsters they won’t be voting.
Nearly a quarter of Americans, 23 percent, are promising not to vote in the midterms. Only fourteen percent felt this way in March. Currently, a full 31 percent of Americans are either committed to not voting (23 percent) or unsure who they’ll support (eight percent).
Where has that drop-off come from? Much of that drop-off has come from voters that Democrats rely on to keep the party churning ahead.
A full 28 percent of Latinos say they will not vote in the midterm elections. This is up ten points from 18 percent in March of this year. As the election has drawn closer, a significant share of Latinos have chosen not to vote at all. Historically, Latinos have supported Democrats by wide double-digit margins. Combined, a full 36 percent of Latinos either plan not to vote (28 percent) or are unsure who they’ll support (8 percent).
Young people are planning to boycott the midterm elections compared to how they felt in March of this year. A startling 37 percent of 18- to 29-year-olds are planning not to vote in November. This is up a full 18 points since March, when 18 percent said they wouldn’t vote. Young people have overwhelmingly supported Democrats in recent elections but are largely planning to sit out the election.
Democrats’ advantage among young people has also shrunk significantly compared to March. In March, young people planned to support Democrats by 24 points, 48 percent to 24 percent. Now, young people plan to support Democrats by only six points, 31 percent to 25 percent. The share of young voters planning to support Republicans has risen one point, while the share planning to support Democrats has declined seventeen points since March.
Among independents, a full 42 percent say they will not vote in November, up from 32 percent in March. Independents have soured on both parties, with the share planning to vote Democrat declining by three points, and the share planning to vote Republican declining by four points. The key story among independents is just how few are committed to voting at all. Combined, 55 percent of independents either say they won’t vote (43 percent) or are undecided about who to vote for (13 percent).
This doesn’t mean that Democrats don’t have a strong chance of retaking significant ground in the midterms. November will be a fight. Perhaps the electorate itself will be particularly small, but that electorate will still favor Democrats. Perhaps a share of the voters who are promising to boycott the midterms will turn out to vote and vote for Democrats.
What the data does show is that groups that historically favored Democrats are saying they are withdrawing from the electorate. Because these groups were already moving toward the GOP at the margins and because the largest declines have come from Democrats, it is the Democratic Party that is being hollowed out by voter apathy more than the Republican Party. Beyond the midterms, this has implications for the 2028 presidential election, too.
Despite a relentless anti-Trump campaign from Democrats, a huge share of swing voters have no interest in replacing Republicans in Congress. The greatest apathy and movement away from Democrats have occurred among young voters, who have moved by double digits away from Democrats since March. The takeaway? Don’t believe every polling headline you read. And keep in mind that sometimes who doesn’t vote is as important as who does.
Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
