By Bill Wilson
With the startling victories of the Democrats in the midterm elections, pundits of all stripes are making predictions of what is to come. If you are right of center, it is doom and gloom — literally referred to as the end of the GOP by outgoing Florida Republican Governor Ron DeSantis. For those on the left, once the giddiness wears off, they appear to be building wish lists like small children at Christmas. It is setting up for a replay of one of the most time honored truisms of American politics: the left always, I mean always, overplays their hand.
Their lack of patience is a hallmark of the leftist cadres now gathering in the streets. The newly elected socialist members will demand immediate action on a wide range of issues, programs and reinstatements. And, of course, everyone will require more money.
Looking at this there is one early sign that will foreshadow where the new Congress is heading. When the Senate meets in January, the first order of business will be enactment of the rules of procedure. And that is where we will all get a snapshot of what the next two years will be like. Do they eliminate the filibuster in the Senate, the rule that essentially requires 60 votes to enact most legislation? At the very best, they will be four to five votes short of that magic number. And while there are still leftist sleeper cells in the GOP Caucus, there are fewer than before.
It seems highly unlikely that the Democrat leadership will simply leave things as they are. To do that tells all the neo-Marxists that they have no intent to do anything serious on policy. As long as they fall back on the filibuster as this granite wall that prevents the insane socialist giveaway policies or the destruction of American business or the reimposition of the lunacy of “green” policies now killing Europe, the leadership can claim they are powerless to move. We will, of course, be fed a constant diet of public humiliation sessions — also known as oversight hearings — and I have to assume an impeachment or two. But there will be nothing that materially benefits the American people and absolutely nothing for the hard left activists.
This appears to exact a price that the Democrat leadership can ill-afford. As more than one pollster has observed, the vote on Tuesday was not “for” the Democrats but a rather well-earned kick to the groan to the Republicans for paying more attention to the whims of lobbyists and the overseas power-players than to the price of beef and gasoline. So, look for the Democrats to split the question, try to have their cake and eat it too.
I predict there will be a big show of changing the filibuster. Gleeful press events will be held and all sorts of promises made. But it will fall way short of an outright filibuster repeal. As Democrats, bureaucrats and socialists are prone to do, they will create a system where the filibuster can be “lifted.” And, in that “system of regulation” will be new powers handed to a few members, most like the Majority Leader, an effected Committee Chair and or by a secret ballot vote of the Leadership. Something that gives the powers that be the ability to demand the filibuster be enforced when they want it to and sidestepped when it serves the “cause.”
This will be the first sign that the new Senate will be looking to enact change. Now everyone will immediately yell, “Trump will just veto.” But can anyone really be that sure? For example, Trump has already indicated he can find common cause with Elizabeth Warren on interest rate caps on credit cards. There are those close to the Trump administration who advocate labor law policies that would find great favor with organized labor. So, anything the Democrats really want can be passed with less than 60 votes and sent to President Trump tied to a package, a deal. Who knows what bobbles with they hang on those “Christmas trees”? But you can be sure that this is the design of the last two years.
Trump is a deal maker. He will not pass up the opportunity to strikes deals with the Democrat Congress that enhance his legacy while allowing them to claim victories on a range of topics. The key to this game is modifying the filibuster in a way that lets the Democrat leadership pick and choose how to use it.
Bill Wilson is the former president of Americans for Limited Government.
