Former President Donald Trump now leads President Joe Bident by 2 points in the latest Emerson poll following his Aug. 24 arrest and mugshot by Fulton County, Ga. prosecutors and his absence at the Republican presidential debate the day before, 46 percent to 44 percent.
The poll, taken Aug. 25 and Aug. 26, marks an improvement from the Emerson poll take Aug. 16 and Aug. 17, which had Trump and Biden tied 44 percent to 44 percent.
Which was a further improvement from the June 19 to June 20 Emerson poll, when Biden led 44 percent to 43 percent.
And even better than the April 24 to April 25 Emerson poll, when Biden led 43 percent to 41 percent.
Trump’s edge in late August comes amid a considerable number of Democrats who say they will be voting for Trump, at 16.9 percent, compared to just 10.7 percent of Republicans who say they will vote for Biden. Independents are roughly split, with 41 percent saying they prefer Biden and 38 percent who want Trump, with almost 21 percent undecided.
Critically, since April, Biden has dropped among Democrats from 84 percent to 78 percent, and Trump has improved among Republicans from 81 percent to 82.6 percent. In April, both candidates again roughly spilt independents, with Biden garnering 33.8 percent and Trump with 33.4 percent.
The picture for Biden in August worsens if philosopher Cornel West is in the race, with Trump leading 44 percent to 39 percent, and West with 4.1 percent. Suddenly, then, Trump is leading independents 35 percent to 30 percent, with West scooping up almost 7 percent of non-affiliated voters. Trump still keeps 16 percent of Democrats, and Biden improves among Republicans to 11.5 percent.
Deeper in the numbers, Trump has dramatically improved among minorities, garnering 19 percent of Blacks and 41 percent of Hispanics in the two-way race against Biden, and 17.8 percent of Blacks and 39.7 percent of Hispanics in the three-way race against Biden and West.
In April, Trump only received 15 percent of Blacks and 31.5 percent of Hispanics, and only 9 percent of Democrats.
West for his part garners 8.1 percent of Blacks and 6.8 percent of Hispanics, almost entirely out of Biden’s votes in the two-way race, illustrating the potential spoiler role the candidate could be playing the race for 2024.
Suffice to say, these numbers are simply awful for an incumbent president seeking reelection a year out from the election. Biden could still mount a comeback, but over time, voter attitudes in opposition tend harden and could ultimately result in the American people saying it’s time for a change.
In the Republican nomination, Trump still safely leads the field in the Emerson poll, garnering 49.6 percent, compared to 11.6 percent for Florida Republican Governor Ron DeSantis, 8.8 percent for Vivek Ramaswamy, 6.9 percent for former Vice President Mike Pence and 6.6 percent for former South Carolina Republican Governor and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley.
With Trump continuing to dominate the news—including his prosecutions by Democratic-dominated cities and jurisdictions of New York City, Fulton County, Miami, and Washington D.C.—any impact the trials might be having on Trump’s own political fortunes is either negligible, or it might actually be helping him.
And yet, partisan Democrats remain highly committed to acting like the moth to flame, with 71.5 percent saying it made them less likely to vote for Trump, but they weren’t voting for Trump anyway. Beneath that, 21 percent of Democrats remarkably said the indictments made it more likely they would vote for Trump. That includes 15.6 percent of Blacks and 41.1 percent of Hispanics who said the indictments made it more likely they would choose Trump.
It’s almost as if attempting to lock up your political opponents and potentially attempt to disqualify them from running for office so you don’t have to face them in an election like a tin-pot dictator is offensive to the American people, and could ultimately prove to not only be counterproductive for Biden and Democrats come 2024 — but catastrophic.
Robert Romano is the Vice President of Public Policy at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
