Underscoring the political moment the nation finds itself in, the latest polling from Economist-YouGov take Dec. 31, 2023 to Jan. 2, 2024, show that incumbent President Joe Biden is leading potential Republican challengers Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley in nation polls, 44 percent to 41 percent, and 41 percent to 36 percent, respectively.
In the meantime, Biden is tied with former President Donald Trump in the same exact poll, 44 percent to 44 percent, raising the question for GOP primary voters, is Trump the only candidate who can win?
Among Trump’s advantages in the primary, first and foremost is that he has already served as president. Who could possibly have more experience than a former president? That’s tough to beat in any context, even by a current and former governor seeking to leverage their experience as a state executive.
Also in Trump’s corner are his dedicated supporters who might be Trump-only voters. That is, if Trump’s not on the ballot, they might stay home or vote for somebody else who is not the Republican nominee.
A similar phenomenon was seen in 1992 with Ross Perot, whose third party run indeed took votes from both Republican incumbent then-President George H.W. Bush and the winner of that race, Bill Clinton. But Perot also brought to the table many followers of his own, such that turnout increased from 1988 to 1992 by approximately 13 million, from 90.7 million to 103.7 million.
In that race, Perot garnered a whopping 19.7 million votes, or 18.9 percent of the popular vote. Some credit Clinton’s win to Perot, while others myself included tend to think Clinton would have still had an advantage in that race considering Republicans had held the White House for three consecutive terms and Bush had to contend with an onerous inflation and then recession on his watch.
The point is, Perot brought new voters to the table, just as Trump has brought new voters into the Republican Party, garnering 11 million more votes in 2020 than had voted for him in 2016, from 62.9 million to 74.2 million.
Considering that Republicans have not won the popular vote in a presidential election since 2004, bringing new voters into the fold is absolutely necessary to continue to remain competitive in the current two-party system.
The question for the alternative candidates, whether DeSantis, Haley or Vivek Ramaswamy, is how do they plan to get Trump voters to the polls in 2024 if Trump is not on the ballot? It’s a very important question, and one voters do not appear to be ignoring when asked for their preferences in the polls.
Without Trump on the ballot, on the margins, either their vote is up in the air, or else they’re just not going to vote, meaning should DeSantis or Haley prevail in the GOP primary — either because they actually won or because Trump was kept off the ballot through unconstitutional and illegal maneuvers by his Democratic opponents — they will have to make up a significant shortfall in the general election. And they know it.
Robert Romano is the Vice President of Public Policy at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
