Former President Donald Trump and incumbent President Joe Biden both easily clinched their respective party’s nominations for the 2024 presidential race on March 13 after winning the necessary amount of delegates, setting the stage for the general election in November.
And, don’t look now, but former President Trump appears to be leading the polls not only for the popular vote — 47.2 percent to 45.1 percent in the two-way race against Biden, and 41.1 percent to 38.4 percent in the five-way race against Biden, Robert Kennedy, Cornell West and Jill Stein according to the latest compiled by RealClearPolling.com — but in each of the seven battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Nevada.
In Arizona, Trump is leading the average of polls taken 47.8 percent to 42.6 percent.
In Georgia, Trump leads Biden 49.4 percent to 43.7 percent.
In Wisconsin, Trump leads 46.4 percent to 45.4 percent.
In Michigan, Trump leads 46.2 percent to 42.6 percent.
In Pennsylvania, Trump leads 46.2 percent to 45.6 percent.
In North Carolina, Trump leads 49.3 percent to 43.8 percent.
And in Nevada, Trump leads 46.3 percent to 40.7 percent.
Meaning, if the election were held today, Trump might not only win the Electoral College—in this case, if the polls held up, 312 to 226 — but perhaps even the popular vote, a feat no Republican has achieved for twenty years, when George W. Bush was reelected in 2004.
Compared to the 2020 cycle, when 293 polls were taken, Biden led 285 of them, or 97 percent. And in 2016, Hillary Clinton led 219 out of 259 polls taken, or 85 percent of them.
Both predicted the Democratic candidates would win the popular vote in 2020 and 2016, which they did.
Whereas in 2024, of the 268 national polls taken, Trump has led 142, or nearly 53 percent of them. That’s up from leading 50 percent of them as of January. 35 were tied, or 13 percent. Biden has only led 91 of them, or about 34 percent.
Now, the polls showing Biden ahead might still be correct, but as it is, of the 34 percent of polls that do show him ahead they average to a 2.56 percent lead, 45.6 percent to 43 percent. In contrast, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by 2.1 points, 48.2 percent to 46.1 percent in 2016, and Biden won it in 2020 51.3 percent to 46.8 percent, a 4.5-point lead.
And in 2020, even with leading by 4.5 point, in the Electoral College, Biden barely won by a scant 43,000 votes, 23,000 in Wisconsin, 10,000 in Georgia and 10,000 in Arizona.
Throughout Trump’s somewhat brief political career, he has consistently said by his critics to be an unsuitable candidate who can’t win because the polls said he couldn’t win. That was the failed argument former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley attempted to make, only winning one state, Vermont, in the process.
This time around, Trump is exhibiting strength with his political base and in the polls, showing perhaps Republicans’ wisdom in nominating him again. The base so far has expanded from almost 63 million in 2016 to 74 million in 2020. Can Trump get above that in 2024 and maybe even win the popular vote? We’ll find out soon enough. Stay tuned.
Robert Romano is the Vice President of Public Policy at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
