Two steps forward, one step back.
That might be the reaction of some Democratic leaders following President Joe Biden being deposed by his own party in favor of Vice President Kamala Harris, now the Democratic Party’s presumptive nominee, without a single vote being cast as the latest Harvard-Harris national poll taken July 26 to July 28 shows former President Donald Trump still leading Harris 52 percent to 48 percent.
That’s no better than Biden’s showing in the same poll taken June 28 to June 30 following Biden’s disastrous debate performance June 27, wherein Trump led 52 percent to 48 percent.
In the June poll’s crosstabs, Trump garnered 94 percent of Republicans, 10 percent of Democrats and 53 percent of independents. And in the July poll, it’s virtually the same, with Trump garnering 94 percent of Republicans, 9 percent of Democrats and 53 percent of independents.
On sex, Trump was beating Biden among males 51 percent to 41 percent, while Biden led females 45 percent to 41 percent. Today, Trump leads males 53 percent to 41 percent, while Harris’ lead among females is 48 percent to 44 percent.
On race, Trump led Whites 53 percent to 36 percent, while Biden led Blacks 65 percent to 23 percent. On Hispanics, Trump had a slight lead, 46 percent to 42 percent. Today, Trump leads Harris among Whites 54 percent to 49 percent, while Harris leads Blacks 67 percent to 25 percent and Hispanics 47 percent to 44 percent.
On age, Harris now leads 18-to-24-year-olds 45 percent to 43 percent, 25-to-34-year-olds 48 percent to 43 percent and 35-to-44-year-olds 47 percent to 46 percent, while Trump leads 45-to-54-year-olds 49 percent to 44 percent, 55-to-64-year-olds 54 percent to 39 percent and 65-year-olds-and-older 50 percent to 45 percent.
So, the predominant factors favoring Trump out of the gates — with the newly minted candidate Harris as the presumptive Democratic nominee — is a pronounced gender gap, where Trump leads men by 12 points while Harris only leads women by 4 points. And a generational gap, where Trump leads older Americans by about 10 points, while Harris’ lead among younger Americans is only about 4 points.
Now, those are factors that might change going forward, but with a little more than three months before Election Day, there will be just a few opportunities for Harris to either reintroduce herself or change public attitudes about her at the Democratic Party nominating Convention Aug. 19 to Aug. 22, or at the upcoming presidential debates, the next which is scheduled Sept. 10.
That’s really not a lot of time. One of the benefits of a robust primary process is that it gives voters the opportunity to become acquainted with a candidate and to build a base of support. However, out of the gates, Harris appears to be maintaining the base of support that Biden had — for now. And time will tell if that base is strong, or if it implodes upon closer examination. Stay tuned.
Robert Romano is the Vice President of Public Policy at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
