The election of President Donald Trump already appears to be having a significant impact on illegal immigrant flows into the U.S., with southwest land border encounters reported by U.S. Border Patrol down to 61,465 in January, the lowest levels seen since Sept. 2020, when it was 57,674 in the middle of the Covid pandemic.
When there’s a deterrent, there can be a real change. An immediate change. Whether it be Trump’s ongoing threat of a 25 percent tariff on Mexico — he didn’t even wait to take office before leveling that ultimatum — unless they help out with border security and cracking down on the fentanyl drug cartels, or Trump moving the U.S. military to assist the Border Patrol and the border states including Texas and Arizona, the numbers speak for themselves.
Compared to just a year ago, in Jan. 2024 there were 176,195 southwest land border encounters, it is now down more than 65 percent. Just from Dec. 2024, when it was 96,035, the reduction was 35.9 percent.
Of course, none of this is surprising. Trump had seen similar results in 2019 when he made the same exact threat, resulting in a June 7, 2019 deal between President Donald Trump and then-Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador that avoided Trump’s threatened tariffs on May 30 that would have been 5 percent starting on June 10, 10 percent on July 1 and then up to 25 percent by October.
At the time, Trump wrote on Twitter (now X), “On June 10th, the United States will impose a 5% Tariff on all goods coming into our Country from Mexico, until such time as illegal migrants coming through Mexico, and into our Country, STOP. The Tariff will gradually increase until the Illegal Immigration problem is remedied… at which time the Tariffs will be removed. Details from the White House to follow.”
Then the deal was cut days later, which included a Mexican military deployment to interdict the oncoming migrant caravan from Central America, as well as provision for asylum seekers to wait out pending hearings in Mexico without being allowed to cross into the U.S.
According to the text of the joint agreement, “Mexico will take unprecedented steps to increase enforcement to curb irregular migration, to include the deployment of its National Guard throughout Mexico, giving priority to its southern border. Mexico is also taking decisive action to dismantle human smuggling and trafficking organizations as well as their illicit financial and transportation networks.”
In addition, the U.S. has expanded the Migrant Protection Protocols, per the agreement, “those crossing the U.S. Southern Border to seek asylum will be rapidly returned to Mexico where they may await the adjudication of their asylum claims… [And,] Mexico will authorize the entrance of all of those individuals for humanitarian reasons, in compliance with its international obligations, while they await the adjudication of their asylum claims.”
Immediately following the agreement, encounters on the southern border with Mexico decreased from 144,116 in May 2019 to 45,250 by Oct. 2019, a 68.6 percent decrease, showing the immediate impact of the tariff threat that never actually had to ever go into effect, because the threat alone resulted in an agreement and immediate actions by Mexico.
Once again, after winning the election, Trump threatened tariffs on Nov. 26 in a post on Truth Social, unless Mexico and Canada secure their borders to stop illegal aliens from crossing into the U.S. and similarly stop the fentanyl shipments, writing, “As everyone is aware, thousands of people are pouring through Mexico and Canada, bringing Crime and Drugs at levels never seen before. Right now a Caravan coming from Mexico, composed of thousands of people, seems to be unstoppable in its quest to come through our currently Open Border. On January 20th, as one of my many first Executive Orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% Tariff on ALL products coming into the United States, and its ridiculous Open Borders. This Tariff will remain in effect until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country! Both Mexico and Canada have the absolute right and power to easily solve this long simmering problem. We hereby demand that they use this power, and until such time that they do, it is time for them to pay a very big price!”
There was some hemming and hawing, and financial news publications repeatedly embarrassed themselves worrying about another Great Depression, but in the end, Trump paused for 30 days a 25 percent tariff on Mexican goods and another 25 percent tariff on Canadian goods and 10 percent tariff on Canadian energy products after both countries acceded to the President’s demands to contribute to border security, preventing illegal migration and drug trafficking flows.
Announcing the dramatic step on Truth Social on Feb. 3, President Trump wrote that Mexico had agreed to send 10,000 troops to the U.S.-Mexican border to assist with stopping illegal immigration and drug trafficking of fentanyl by the cartels, “I just spoke with President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico. It was a very friendly conversation wherein she agreed to immediately supply 10,000 Mexican Soldiers on the Border separating Mexico and the United States. These soldiers will be specifically designated to stop the flow of fentanyl, and illegal migrants into our Country.”
And so the tariffs are paused, Trump wrote, “We further agreed to immediately pause the anticipated tariffs for a one month period during which we will have negotiations headed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Secretary of Treasury Scott Bessent, and Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, and high-level Representatives of Mexico. I look forward to participating in those negotiations, with President Sheinbaum, as we attempt to achieve a ‘deal’ between our two Countries.”
Once again, Trump’s critics tried to say this was all for show, but in reality, with illegal immigration down already 65 percent from the levels seen just a year ago, and down 35 percent just from a month before taking office, all that matters are the results.
What it means is that former President Joe Biden could have stopped the flow of illegal immigration the entire time he was in office, but foolishly blamed Congress for not passing his immigration reforms. All Biden was doing was facilitating the crisis to create leverage in the legislative branch — and it backfired spectacularly politically, making him a one-term president. But now we know Biden could have stopped it the entire time.
Where there’s a will, there’s a way. Trump won the trade war and is securing the border without firing a shot. Like another Biden term of office, or a Kamala Harris term, as turns out, failure is optional.
Robert Romano is the Vice President of Public Policy at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
