Four years ago, Jack Ciattarelli came a hair’s breadth away from being elected New Jersey governor in an off-year election with Democrat Joe Biden in the White House, the same night Glenn Youngkin won in Virginia, and so Republicans nominated him again.
In 2021, Ciattarelli came much closer than expected — all of the polls showed him trailing incumbent Phil Murphy by an average of 7.8 points — but when the election rolled around, he only lost by 2.8 percentage points, 51 percent to 48.2 percent. The distance was 84,000 votes.
Even Trafalgar Group, which had the most accurate poll that cycle, slightly overstated Murphy’s margin of victory at 4 points, 49 percent to 45 percent.
This is all significant because in 2025, while Ciattarelli has trailed almost every single poll taken this cycle with the exception of one Hill-Emerson poll in September that had him tied to Democratic U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill, this time he is only trailing by 3.3 percentage points in the average of polls. It’s much closer this time.
And Trafalgar this time has the race within 1 point, Sherrill at 45 percent and Ciattarelli at 44 percent.
If the polls are as far off as they were last time — 5 points is nothing to sneeze at — then it could be a very good night for Ciattarelli.
This late in the race, Ciattarelli — who hasn’t led a single poll this cycle in the average — must be hoping the polls are wrong. Besides campaigning really hard, there’s not much else to do. Either way, a Republican win would be viewed as an improbable come from behind victory that was unexpected nationally — but perhaps in hindsight would have appeared obvious.
Another thing that could mean it’s closer than expected in New Jersey is Ciattarelli is competing for an open seat, with New Jersey Democratic Governor Phil Murphy term-limited. More, generally, open seats are easier to compete for than seats with an incumbent seeking reelection, usually.
But a headwind for Ciattarelli and Republicans is the political climate. Biden is no longer in the president. With Republican President Donald Trump in the White House, the off-year elections of 2025 and 2026 are expected to lean Democratic this cycle. Historically, that’s what usually happens.
New Jersey in particular has been like clockwork. In 2021, with a Democrat in the White House, the Republican overperformed. With these governors’ races, an exception to the off-year rule favoring the national opposition party seems to be that incumbents are less vulnerable. So, Murphy was able to withstand these swings in 2021 and get re-elected.
But otherwise, in 2017, with a Republican in the White House, the Democrat won. In 2009, with a Democrat in the White House, the Republican won. In 2001, with a Republican president, the Democrat won.
So, if anything, with history as any guide, and with Trump in the White House, in 2025 one might expect the Democrats to do better than expected in not just New Jersey, but also Virginia. With the elections now imminent, there’s only one way to find out. Stay tuned.
Robert Romano is the Executive Director of Americans for Limited Government.
