Don’t look now, but the special election for Tennessee’s 7th Congressional district, is a lot more interesting than perhaps it should be following the resignation of Republican U.S. Rep. Mark Green who found another job, perhaps under the assumption that President Donald Trump and he had safely won that district in 2024 by more than 20 points, with Green winning 59.5 percent to Democrat Megan Barry’s 38.05 percent.
The race is considered a key test for Republicans headed into the 2026 Congressional midterms, a loss of which might spark panic. If anything, the poll might do that all the same with the special election looming on Tuesday, Dec. 2 following the long Thanksgiving holiday.
Now, the Republican replacement, Matt Van Epps, only leads Aftyn Behn 47.5 percent to 46 percent on a Nov. 22 to Nov. 24 Emerson College poll. With Republicans holding just a 219 to 213 majority in the House and George Republican U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene resigning in January to bring that down to 218, is that a lot closer than it should be?
Top issues in the poll are the economy and inflation with 38 percent and housing affordability at 15 percent. Both Trump voters and Kamala Harris 2024 voters agree those are the top issues by roughly identical margins. While the Republican candidate leads among those saying the economy and inflation 48 percent to 43.7 percent, the Democratic candidate leads among those saying housing affordability 48.1 percent to 47.3 percent, slightly shaping the narrative around the outcome of the election. Â
Suffice to say, with home prices in Tennessee up a gargantuan 47 percent since 2021 according to the Freddie Mac Home Price index, housing affordability is not just a blue state issue, it’s an every state issue.
A Democratic win might, on the margins, be attributed to the affordability issue, while a Republican win simply to the district being a plus-20 district for Republicans in a presidential election where the Republican won.
Usually in off-year elections, special elections and midterm elections, the party that is in the White House underperforms compared to a general election. Special elections are particularly vulnerable to acquisition by the opposition party.
Call it a victory hangover. It led to Republicans shockingly losing the Alabama Senate seat vacated by then-Attorney General Jeff Sessions in 2017.
More recently, in Florida, Republicans survived two special elections in pretty red districts earlier this year, albeit with the Republican candidates similarly underperforming compared to 2024. Still, as they say in sports, a win’s a win. Anyone who retires or resigns in any closer districts, creating open seats either in a special election or the midterms knows (or should know) they are increasing the odds that the opposition party will win the seat.
The last time the nation was in this kind of cycle — a Republican won the White House, House and Senate — was in 2017 and 2018 following President Trump’s first victory.
Republicans in Tennessee in 2016 won their seats in Congressional Districts 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7 and 8 with an average of 70.8 percent of the vote. And in the 2018 Congressional midterms, Republican candidates who still all won (incumbents usually do except on the margins) averaged 67.85 percent, about a 3-point drop-off. In 2020, both parties kept all their seats, but with President Trump running for re-election in a very close national election that he ultimately lost, House Republicans in Tennessee averaged 69.7 percent of the vote, still about a 1-point drop-off from 2016.
In 2022, with the new, baseline Census-redrawn districts by the Republican-led state legislature, Republicans picked up a seat and won Congressional Districts 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 and 8 with an average of 67.5 percent. And finally, in 2024, Republicans won those same seats again with about 67.6 percent of the vote. Republicans won both the 2022 and 2024 elections in the House in Tennessee, so the similar margins for the House races make sense.
And overall in the state, President Trump won the state in 2016, 2020 and 2024 with 60.72 percent, 60.66 percent and then 64.1 percent, respectively, as last year, the state got more red (just like almost every other state) amid Trump’s historic popular vote win in 2024.
But this is a special election, and so the margins will favor the opposition party even more.
In 2017, while there were no special House elections in Tennessee, nationally there were five races in seats Republicans held: Kansas’ 4th Congressional District, Montana’s At-Large Congressional District, Geogia’s 6th Congressional District, South Carolina’s 5th Congressional District and Utah’s 3rd Congressional District.
In 2016, Republicans for those seats averaged 62.26 percent of the vote for those districts, but in the 2017 special House elections, they only averaged 52.6 percent, almost a 10-point drop-off with the Republican president in the White House compared to the prior presidential election.
And in 2025, there have been two special House elections in Republican-held seats in Florida’s 1st and 6th Congressional districts. In 2024, Republicans averaged 66.2 percent of the vote for both seats, and in the special elections averaged 56.8 percent. Another around 10-point drop-off.
Maybe expect a 10-point drop-off again. As mentioned, special elections are far more winnable for the opposition party than even midterm seats.
The lesson might simply be not to retire or resign any potentially unsafe seats in a special election when your party is in the White House. Again, in 2017, there were no surprises in the special House elections, but in Alabama Republicans briefly lost the Senate seat, not to recover it until 2020.
So, about a 10-point drop-off in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District, if that’s what happens might be expected, would still be a Republican win, so instead of 59.5 percent to 38 percent in 2024, it would be a razor-thin 49.5 percent to 48 percent.
Expect Tuesday to be a nail-biter. One feature to consider is that even if the Democrat Aftyn Behn somehow unexpectedly wins the seat — again special elections pose a greater danger than general elections depending on how “safe” a seat it is — Democrats might just as quickly lose the seat in the 2026 midterms when turnout will be greater, so there’s that. In the meantime, depending on the outcome, the resignation of Greene could be looming even larger on Tuesday night, with another special election in Georgia coming up again in 2026. Stay tuned.
Robert Romano is the Executive Director at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
