In a 20-plus percentage point Republican district in 2024, U.S Representative-elect Matt Van Epps won Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District by a mere 9 points, 53.9 percent to 45 percent. It being a special election, turnout is much lower and with a Republican in the White House, the candidate running in the same party, in this case Van Epps, always underperforms. The question with every special election under these circumstances is by how much.
In 2024, former Republican U.S. Rep. Mark Green won the same seat with 59.5 percent of the vote. So, Van Epps — just like every special election with his party’s president in the White House — underperformed, but only by 5.6 percentage points.
In fact, Van Epps’ was the best performance by a Republican in a special election under these circumstances in recent cycles.
In 2017, while there were no special House elections in Tennessee, nationally there were five races in seats Republicans held: Kansas’ 4th Congressional District, Montana’s At-Large Congressional District, Geogia’s 6th Congressional District, South Carolina’s 5th Congressional District and Utah’s 3rd Congressional District. There were drop-offs of 8.5 points, 6.25 points, 9.9 points, 8.16 points and 15.5 points, respectively, from the presidential election year performance in those same districts.
In 2016, Republicans for those seats averaged 62.26 percent of the vote for those districts, but in the 2017 special House elections, they only averaged 52.6 percent, almost a 10-point drop-off with the Republican president in the White House compared to the prior presidential election.
And in 2025, there have been two special House elections in Republican-held seats in Florida’s 1st and 6th Congressional districts. In 2024, Republicans averaged 66.2 percent of the vote for both seats, and in the special elections averaged 56.8 percent. Almost another 10-point drop-off — 9 points and 9.8 points, respectively.
Meaning, there was some combination of Republicans overperforming in the Tennessee special election environment and Democrats underperforming. In a Nov. 22 to Nov. 24 Emerson College poll, the only major poll taken, Van Epps only led Aftyn Behn 47.5 percent to 46 percent. Van Epps did about 6 points better and Behn 1 point worse.
Galvanized by the prospect of a close race and Republicans kicked into high gear to turn their people out — and they triumphed. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) flew to Tennessee and personally participated in the campaign’s final days to ensure that the House Republican majority remained where it was. Republicans took the race seriously, and an Election Day turnout campaign won the day to overcome a Democratic Party early voting advantage.
Now Republicans will hold a 220 to 213 majority in the House until Georgia Republican U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene resigns in January, taking it back to 219, after which there will be yet another special election.
The 2026 Congressional midterms will be here in a heartbeat and Republicans will have to fight every bit as hard in all 220 districts just to keep what they have — with only three seats to lose before the current House majority evaporates. Republicans have to win 99 percent of the races where they have incumbent seats, or they’ll lose the majority.
The smallest losses in a midterm in modern history in years where there were losses was just three House seats by Democrats in 1962 following the Cuban Missile Crisis. Nobody loses just two seats. If you’re the White House incumbent party losing seats in the House, which occurs 90 percent of the time in Congressional midterms, the overwhelming odds are you lose more than two seats, with losses averaging almost 35 seats in years with losses in midterms.
Otherwise, the only exceptions to the midterm jinx occurred in 1934 when Democrats picked up nine House seats, in 1998 when Democrats picked up four House seats and 2002 when Republicans picked up eight House Seats.
The moral of the story is don’t take anything for granted. Above all else, House Republicans should be focused on passing as much legislation as possible that advances their agenda so voters have a reason to show up in November. Meaning, whatever President Donald Trump was hoping to accomplish in Congress, it’s now or never.
Robert Romano is the Executive Director of Americans for Limited Government.
