While President Donald Trump’s approval rating has declined moderately after a brief bump due to the conflict with Iran and rising fuel costs as a result of that conflict, his approval rating hasn’t fallen too much, and voters still agree with the bulk of his policy agenda, at least according to a new Harvard CAPS-Harris poll.
The survey, conducted March 25-26 among 2,009 registered voters, found surprising resilience in President Trump’s approval rating despite the Iran conflict, the partial-government shutdown, and rising fuel prices due to the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed. President Trump lost just three percentage points over the past month, going from 46 percent in the Feb. 2026 survey to 43 percent.
Voters still show strong support for the core tenets of President Trump’s agenda, including deporting criminal illegal aliens, eliminating government fraud, and enacting voter ID laws. While the conflict with Iran remains a divisive issue, over half of voters believe the airstrikes were necessary and close to three-quarters (74 percent) say Iran should be stopped from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
On the Iran issue, the choice to use preemptive force and the Trump Administration’s agenda of preventing Iran from securing nuclear weapons are broadly supported by the public according to the survey. 74 percent of voters say the U.S. has an interest in stopping Iran from securing a nuclear weapon, including a majority across political parties.
On the airstrikes, while 52 percent oppose President Trump’s handling of the Iran conflict so far, 54 percent say the U.S. airstrikes on Iran are justified. 63 percent think the killing of thousands of unarmed protestors justifies the airstrikes, 62 percent believe the threat of global terror cells justify the strikes, and 62 percent believe Iranian missiles and drones being launched at civilians in neighboring countries justify the strikes.
Core components of the Trump Administration’s domestic agenda are highly popular, with 85 percent of Americans supporting Trump’s efforts to lower prescription drug prices, 77 percent supporting his focus on deporting criminal illegal aliens, and 75 percent supporting eliminating government waste and fraud.
Voters also strongly align with the Trump Administration’s promise to fight for election integrity, with a full 82 percent of voters supporting proof of ID to vote, 80 percent supporting states purging illegal aliens from voter rolls, and 74 percent supporting proof of citizenship to register to vote. These policies together are core priorities of the SAVE America Act, which President Trump has been urging Congress to pass, and the act itself is supported by 68 percent of voters, according to the survey.
What the data shows is that while President Trump’s approval rating has taken a hit since the Iran conflict began, it hasn’t been as severe as expected. If U.S. military operations in Iran are wrapped up in the next few weeks, as President Trump projected in his April 1 televised address to the nation, his approval could rise significantly. His focus on securing a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, if successful, will also be great for approval ratings as fuel prices decline.
According to the Co-Director of the Harvard CAPS/ Harris poll, Mark Penn, President Trump’s decline has been “small” given the fact that the survey occurred before a deal was reached on the lengthy partial-government shutdown and about a month into the Iran conflict.
“Trump shows a small decline given the twin events of the Iran War and the DHS shutdown, and the Congressional race remains tight,” said Penn. “Gas price increases are likely behind the decline, but such declines are likely temporary if the war goes as planned. Support for the war is split along partisan lines but there are no questions in voter minds about the evil intentions of Iranian regime.”
What is more, registered voters believe looking back that the airstrikes against Iran were justified and are solidly in favor of President Trump’s core policy goals on a slate of domestic issues, including deporting criminal illegals, enacting voter ID laws and rooting out government fraud. The war with Iran, and the corresponding rise in fuel costs, was always going to have a negative ripple effect, but resolving those issues could ultimately boost his approval.
Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
