Consumer prices popped up to 3.8 percent annual growth in April, according to the latest data compiled by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, amid a continued increase of oil-based energy including gasoline and fuel oil amid the Iran war.
After increasing 21.2 percent in March as the U.S. and Israel engaged in major combat operations, gasoline prices’ growth slowed to 5.4 percent in April amid the President Donald Trump’s Pakistan-facilitated ceasefire announced on April 7.
Similarly, after growing 30.7 percent in March, fuel oil prices’ growth slowed to 5.8 percent in April.
This follows a similar trajectory for overall oil prices, with WTI crude averaging $91.38 a barrel in March, and then $100.32 a barrel in April, a 9.7 percent increase.
So, for May, there might be more of a hike for the remaining 4 percent as the full price of oil hits gasoline, or maybe some more, depending on what happens with the war after President Trump announced on May 11 that the ceasefire with Iran was on “life support”.
At issue in the diplomatic and naval standoff in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman — with Iran block oil tanker traffic from the Middle East through the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. responding with its own blockade of all Iranian ports for their own traffic including oil exports — is the continued disagreement over the future of Iran’s nuclear weapons programs.
According to President Trump, Iran had agreed to let the U.S. or China extract the already enriched uranium at the nuclear facilities the U.S. destroyed in June 2025’s Operation Midnight Hammer, but when it came time for Iran to put it in writing, removed the concession, which might have ended the war.
Speaking with reporters at the Oval Office on May 11, Trump said, “Iran told me very strongly because they intend to give us the nuclear dust as I call it… But the nuclear dust which is what we hit and they told me number one you’re getting it but you’re going to have to take it out because the site was so obliterated that there’s only one or two countries in the world that could get it. It’s so deep and got hit so hard that there’s no way they have the equipment to move it. You and China are the only two countries in the world that could take it out. So, we talked about it and they said, You’ll have to take it out because we… don’t have the capability of doing it.”
And then it was never put in writing. Trump added, “Look, I’ve had to deal with them four or five times. They changed their mind. They’re very dishonorable people, the leadership… [T]these people that you make a deal and then the next day they send you a document … that takes 5 days to get there when it should have been there in 20 minutes. You know, it’s pretty simple document. They will never have a nuclear weapon.”
As usual, the devil’s in the details.
Instead, now President Trump is weighing resuming military action against Iran as he embarks for China with face-to-face talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping. That could include more bombing — he has previously threatened to target Iran’s electricity generation — or might just include resuming Project Freedom to escort tankers and other cargo vessels out of the Persian Gulf that have been stranded since early March.
Either way, until oil production globally returns to pre-war levels and/or the U.S. completely degrades Iran’s ability to attack its oil-producing neighbors, it would appear oil prices will remain high for the foreseeable future. As usual, stay tuned.
Robert Romano is the Executive Director of Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
