Crime in the United States has continued to plummet after a detailed analysis of crime statistics from the Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ), released earlier this year, predicted that crime could hit its lowest rate in a century in 2026.
The Mid-Year report from the CCJ reveals that the striking declines in crime the organization highlighted in January are continuing across the country as the Trump administration cracks down on illegal alien activity, sanctuary cities, and crime hotbeds like Washington, D.C.
The report, released July 23, studied 13 crime categories across 36 major cities that publish crime data consistently and discovered that homicides are on track to reach the lowest rate in modern history.
According to the report, homicides fell 18 percent from the same period in 2025, and 51 percent from the recent peak in 2022 during the pandemic.
This steep drop in homicides in the first half of 2026 builds on an already declining crime rate in 2025. The CCJ’s Year-End 2025 report estimated that based on recent statistics, the homicide rate in 2026 would hit a record low of 4.0 per 100,000 people. The report noted that FBI statistics, expected near the end of 2026, will be needed to verify that drop.
However, the data released for the first half of 2026 shows that the prediction is likely correct, putting 2026 on track to have the lowest homicide rate since 1900.
Homicides were down 18 percent in the first half of 2026 compared to the first half of 2025. Across the 30 cities included in the study that provide homicide data, the homicide rate fell in 21 of them.
Many cities saw declines in homicides greater than 50 percent, with Lincoln, NE, showing a 100 percent drop compared to the first half of 2025; Rochester, NY, showing a 76 percent drop; Arlington, TX, showing a 60 percent drop; and Colorado Springs, CO, showing a 53 percent drop.
Homicides are not the only crime category plummeting under the Trump administration. The CCJ’s report shows that nine of 13 crime categories dropped in the first half of 2026 compared to the first half of 2025. The greatest decline was in carjackings, which fell 47 percent across major cities compared to the same period last year.
According to the report, four criminal categories have seen declines of over 50 percent compared to their highest peaks over the last nine years. Carjackings fell 73 percent in the first half of 2026 compared to the peak in 2023, residential burglary fell 56 percent compared to the peak in 2018, and motor vehicle theft fell 51 percent compared to the peak in 2023.
Violent crime fell across multiple categories compared to 2025, with robbery declining 17 percent and aggravated assault falling two percent. Firearm assaults fell six percent. However, two categories — sexual assault and domestic violence — rose three percent and eight percent, respectively. The report notes that fatal violent crimes declined 23 percent compared to the same period in 2025.
Cities where the Trump Administration has channeled resources and public awareness into fighting crime have seen significant declines. The murder rate in Washington, D.C., plummeted 36 percent from 2025 to 2026, according to the latest data from the Metropolitan Police Department. Motor vehicle theft fell 53 percent in the nation’s capital as well.
The crime rate has reached such a low level that the CCJ is planning a summit in September to analyze the causes, inviting researchers from criminology, economics, psychology, sociology, public health, and other fields to offer explanations.
President Donald Trump made tackling crime a priority of his administration, strengthening funding for law enforcement and executing the largest deportation program of criminal aliens in U.S. history. However, additional factors may also be driving down the crime rate. Americans are living in an increasingly safe society compared to previous decades, marking a notable shift for the country.
Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
