“THE FAKE POLLS USED BY OUR CROOKED MEDIA ARE OUT OF CONTROL, AND SOMETHING MUST BE DONE ABOUT IT. FCC TO THE RESCUE!”
That was President Donald Trump on Truth Social on Aug. 30, suggesting the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) could be looking at television and radio over-the-air licenses for stations that publish what the President is calling “fake polls”.
President Trump is certainly no stranger to bad polling understating his support. Just in 2024, the RealClearPolling.com average prior to the presidential election had the national popular vote at 48.7 percent for former Vice President Kamala Harris and 48.6 percent for Trump, with support for Harris overstated by about 0.4 percent and Trump was understated by about 1.2 percent.
Instead, President Trump won the popular vote — the first Republican to do so since 2004 — 49.8 percent to 48.3 percent. The polls were off by a net 1.6 percent.
Similarly, all of the swing state polls understated Trump’s support.
The average of polls in Michigan had Harris up by 0.5 percent, but she lost to Trump 49.7 percent to 48.3 percent—the polls there were off by a net 1.9 percent.
The average of polls in Wisconsin similarly had Harris up by 0.4 percent, but she lost to Trump 49.6 percent to 48.7 percent—the polls there were off by a net 1.3 percent.
The average of polls in Pennsylvania did show Trump up by 0.4 percent, but he defeated Harris 50.4 percent to 48.7 percent—the polls there were again off by a net 1.3 percent.
North Carolina polls had Trump up 1.2 points, but he won by 3.3 points. Georgia polls had Trump up 1.3 points, but he won by 2.2. points. Nevada polls had him up by 0.6 points, but he won by 3.1 points. And Arizona had him up 2.8 points, but he won by 5.5 points.
And the same thing happened in 2016, when Hillary Clinton led the polls in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania but Trump ended up winning all three and the Electoral College.
It’s not just President Trump who the polls got wrong. In 2018, Florida Republican Governor Ron DeSantis was trailing Democrat Andrew Gillum by 3.6 percentage points in the polls during the campaign, but ended up winning the race by 49.6 percent to 49.2 percent — the polls were off by a whopping 4 points. It happens.
And that was during a blue wave Congressional midterm year where Democrats picked up 41 seats in the House of Representatives. It wasn’t a great year for Republicans in the House, but they did manage to pick up four Senate seats in Florida, Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota while dropping two in Arizona and Nevada.
That is to say, with President Trump in the White House in 2018, the House went about as well (or not) as expected for the White House incumbent party — but Republicans who Trump campaigned with overperformed in statewide elections.
One exception might be Texas Republican Sen. Ted Cruz. In 2018, which was closer than expected, there wasn’t a single poll that showed Beto O’Rourke ahead of Cruz, which said Cruz was leading 51 percent to 44 percent but the final result was 50.9 percent to 48.3 percent. As it turns out, Cruz’ margin of victory was overstated by 4.2 points. Remember, O’Rourke surprised everyone in 2018 with how close it was.
So, sometimes, polls can overstate both Republicans and Democrats—in the same year.
All of which is something to keep in mind as we review polling hotly contested Senate races in Texas, Ohio, Iowa, Maine and Alaska — sometimes you think it’s going to go one way or be close, and then the opposite happens.
Certainly, Texas Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton is locked in a tough race with James Talarico, with the Democrat surprisingly leading in what is usually a reliably Republican state. Whereas all the same exact polls show Texas Republican Greg Abbott safely ahead, showing there are at least a few Abbott voters in the polls — maybe a few Sen. John Cornyn supporters who lost the Republican primary to Paxton — who are going for Talarico.
But if the polls are correct, Republicans, who trail the Congressional generic ballot by an average 6.4 percentage points, might indeed be on the brink of electoral catastrophe. That tracks with the President’s approval ratings, which are low. We’ve seen this movie before, where presidents who had lower approval ratings did more poorly in midterm elections.
There will be plenty of time for Monday morning quarterbacking of the outcome in November. Perhaps the GOP came into the 2026 campaign a bit overconfident and taking certain things for granted, for example, that Ohio (which Barack Obama won twice) is a red state because of Trump, but where former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown might be staging a political comeback if certain polls are to be believed.
Now, don’t report me to the FCC just yet — don’t kill the messenger. Here’s the thing. We actually don’t know right now if the polls are right or wrong. There’s still time but the Republican National Committee and President Trump may have to spend their campaign war chests if they want to keep the Senate. Midterms are never easy.
The approval ratings weren’t great for Trump in 2018, either, very similar to today, but with fierce campaigning by the President, Republicans in statewide races did far better than expected — and it could happen again. I guess we’ll see.
So, don’t worry, Mr. President. Polls aren’t everything — but you already knew that.
Robert Romano is the Executive Director of Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
