With the November midterm election under a month out, there has been speculation about whether turnout will differ in 2026 compared to 2022, with absentee voting patterns raising particular interest.
New data out of North Carolina, which began sending out absentee ballots to voters just over a month ago on Sept. 4, reveals that 2026 could result in lower absentee voting than the 2022 midterm cycle did.
As of this writing, a total of 24,005 absentee ballots have been returned, according to the latest numbers from the North Carolina Board of Elections. These numbers are calculated through Oct. 7, 27 days before Election Day.
Since Election Day was Nov. 8 in 2022 and is Nov. 3 this year, Oct. 7, 2026, and Oct. 12, 2022, are both 27 days before Election Day.
At this same point in 2022 (Oct. 12), a total of 28,685 accepted mail ballots had been returned by voters.
This means 4,680 fewer ballots have been cast in 2026 compared to the number that had been cast 27 days out from the election in 2022. That is a steep 16.3 percent drop from 2022.
While returned absentee ballots dropped among all parties, Democrats have seen the steepest decline.
The Election Lab at the University of Florida publishes data for states that allow absentee voting and breaks down the data from the Board of Elections by political party.
Looking at North Carolina, the numbers are alarming for Democrats.
As of this writing, a total of 10,822 Democratic ballots have been returned, compared to 14,569 ballots returned 27 days out from Election Day in 2022. That is 3,747 fewer ballots returned, representing a 25.7 percent decline compared to 2022.
Republicans have seen a decline too, but not by as much. As of this writing, 3,929 ballots have been returned, compared to 4,662 at 27 days out in 2022. This amounts to 733 fewer ballots returned and a 15.7 percent drop-off.
The decline for unaffiliated voters has been minimal. A total of 9,254 ballots have been returned as of this writing, compared to 9,454 ballots returned at the same point in 2022. This amounts to 200 fewer ballots returned this year for unaffiliated voters, representing a minor 2.1 percent decline compared to 2022.
Democrats’ share of returned absentee ballots has declined 5.7 percentage points compared to 2022. As of Oct. 12, 2022 (27 days out from Election Day that year), Democrats’ share of returned absentee ballots totaled 14,569 ballots, or 50.8 percent of the vote. As of this writing, Democrats’ share of returned absentee ballots totals 10,822 ballots, or just 45.1 percent of the vote.
These declines hint at a possible turnout issue in North Carolina, and potentially other states as well. Democrats have seen the steepest declines in absentee voting, while Republicans have shown a moderate decline and unaffiliated voters have seen very little change.
One factor affecting Democratic absentee voting — according to disgruntled Democrats themselves — could be more rigorous vetting of the absentee voting process. North Carolina has strengthened the rules around absentee voting to prevent voter fraud, now requiring voters using absentee ballots to include a copy of a photo ID.
In addition, the Republican majority on the North Carolina State Board of Elections issued modified guidelines for absentee voting in two memos issued Sept. 4 that tighten security on filling out and returning absentee ballots.
The first rule change requires that the inner envelope inside the ballot must be sealed when the ballot is returned. Unsealed ballots are voided, and the voter is issued a new ballot. The second rule change specifies that if election officials are made aware of an unauthorized individual dropping off a ballot, those ballots can be invalidated.
While Democrats claim these changes make it harder for specific groups to vote, these are common-sense ballot security measures to prevent voter fraud. If Democrats argue that their voter populations cannot accommodate stricter security around absentee voting, that is concerning.
Another explanation is that the political landscape has shifted since 2022. The 2022 election took place on the tail end of the pandemic, when Democrats pushed an absentee voter agenda. Four years later, it is possible a large share of voters are simply waiting to vote early in person or on Election Day.
This explains part of why absentee voting may have declined in 2026, but it doesn’t entirely explain why Democrats’ share of the absentee vote has declined so much more.
It is entirely possible that stricter absentee voter rules combined with blunted enthusiasm for voting overall are lowering absentee voting across the board in 2026. However, signs indicate this drop-off is hitting Democrats harder. Whether Democrats are going to forgo absentee voting because they cannot accommodate the new rules and sit out the election or choose to vote in person on remains to be seen. It is also important to note that the absentee ballot landscape is shifting rapidly by the day as new ballots arrive from across the state. Still, as an early warning signal, Democrats are down — fairly substantially — compared to where they stood at this point in 2022.
Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
