By Bill Wilson
The most startling takeaway from Tuesday’s Michigan presidential primaries was the more than 100,000 Michigan Democrats who refused to support President Joe Biden as their nominee largely due to his stance on the Israel-Hamas conflict.
Michigan Democrats cast 101,449 votes labeled as “uncommitted” in a furious protest-vote in the Democratic primary on Tuesday, while handing an approximately 20,000 votes apiece to Democratic challengers Marianne Williamson and Rep. Dean Phillips. This resulted in close to 150,000 votes cast against Biden in a primary that should have been a slam-dunk. Biden won the primary with 623,500 votes — over 200,000 votes short of his 2020 numbers.
The protest-vote campaign was largely fueled by young Arab Americans and sympathizers who take issue with Biden’s stance on the war in Gaza. Anti-Biden activists formed the “Listen to Michigan” and “Abandon Biden” campaigns in Michigan and spent weeks urging Democrats to deny Biden their votes in an attempt to force him to withdraw support for Israel.
According to NPR, much of the “Abandon Biden” movement is led by young, elected leaders and their followers — including 30-year-old State. Rep. Abraham Aiyash — who are withholding support from Biden unless he supports a permanent cease-fire in Gaza.
The protest-vote in Michigan is simply one indicator of the fragmentation the Biden coalition is experiencing since 2020, with Biden suffering steeps declines in support among young people, women, and minorities — including Arab Americans.
According to an election survey conducted by The Council on American-Islamic Relations and its Michigan chapter, a full 94% of Muslim-Americans who voted in the Democratic primary on Tuesday voted “uncommitted.” Just 4.6% supported Biden, according to the organization.
The poll also found if the election for president were held now, more Muslim Americans would support former President Donald Trump, 13%, than would support Joe Biden, 8%. A majority of Muslim voters said they’d support a yet to be determined “other candidate” at 40%. A quarter said they’d support third-party candidate Cornel West, and 8% said they’d support Robert F. Kennedy Jr., while 7% said they’d support Jill Stein.
The Muslim vote is on the rise, particularly in contentious battleground states. According to Emgage USA, a group focused on political engagement among Muslim voters, 2020 resulted in approximately 1.1 million votes cast by Muslim Americans, an increase of 2 percentage points compared to 2016.
The Muslim-American vote is relatively small nationwide — 1.5 million voters — but these voters are concentrated in pivotal swing states and played a role in Biden’s successes in 2020. In Michigan four years ago, Biden won the state by just over 150,000 votes.
With the Muslim-American vote concentrated in pivotal battleground states — most notably Michigan, Pennsylvania, Texas and Virginia — the harsh departure from Biden could cut into his margins in November.
As much as Muslim Americans broadly supported Biden in 2020, the Israel-Hamas conflict has greatly deteriorated that support, and there are now indicators that Muslim Americans are retracting their support. Although a majority seem to want a third alternative to either Biden or Trump, it is worth noting that a segment of Muslim-Americans now prefers Trump over Biden.
The root of this swing is Biden’s stance on the Israel-Hamas war, but there is room to speculate that Biden’s handling of domestic issues — such as the economy, housing, and immigration — are also a driving factor in his loss of support among Arab Americans.
Bill Wilson is the former president of Americans for Limited Government.
