After both incumbent President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump wrapped up the Democratic and Republican Party nomination contests, national polls between the two candidates have tightened somewhat, according to the latest average of polls compile by RealClearPolling.com, with Trump leading Biden 44.6 percent to 44.4 percent in the two-way race and 41.6 percent to 40.6 percent in the five-way race when Robert Kennedy, Jr., Jill Stein and Cornell West are included.
That might still mean the popular vote is in play for what could be the first time since 2004, the last time a Republican running, George W. Bush, won the popular vote. Bush also led the average of national polls against John Kerry very consistently throughout the race, which ended up being correct.
In 2016 and 2020, Trump never led the average of national polls at any point in those contests, and ended up losing the popular vote in both races.
This time, however, Trump has been consistently leading the national polls for several months now.
As a result, the race in battleground states also appears to be in Trump’s favor, with Trump leading the average of polls taken in Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan and Georgia.
In Arizona, Trump is leading Biden 49 percent to 44.5 percent.
In Nevada, Trump is ahead 47.5 percent to 44.3 percent.
In Wisconsin, Trump is ahead 48.4 percent to 47.4 percent.
In Michigan, Trump is ahead 47.4 percent to 44.1 percent.
And in Georgia, Trump is ahead 49.7 percent to 45.5 percent.
Only in Pennsylvania, which Trump won in 2016 and Biden won in 2020, does Biden show a slight lead in the average of polls, 46.5 percent to 46 percent.
Meaning if the election were held today, and the polls were correct, Trump would win the election with 285 Electoral College Votes to Biden’s 253.
In looking into some of the polls for reasons why, inflation still appears to be a paramount concern for voters. For example, in the latest Fox News poll in Michigan that showed Trump ahead of Biden 49 percent to 46 percent, 48 percent said financially they were falling behind. Only 39 percent said they were holding steady, and only 13 percent said they were getting ahead.
All told, that’s 87 percent who thought they were either worse off (48 percent) or no better off (39 percent) than they were four years ago. Similar trends play out both nationally and on a state-by-state basis, where as the race shifts, a consistent theme is the cost of living outpacing personal income — as briefly occurred in the tenures of Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush, as well.
For Biden, that could mean that public attitudes about their financial condition are being baked into the cake of how they feel about the election in 2024—which could mean time is running out for Biden. Stay tuned.
Robert Romano is the Vice President of Public Policy at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
