“Sadly, in recent years we have also seen our city destroyed by bad radical left, pro-crime policy that virtually everyone — Republican, Democrat, independent, everyone — you all know it’s a disaster. You know the names of these lunatic policies. No cash bail: somebody kills somebody, go out, no bail… don’t worry go out and kill a couple of more people. Defund our great police, defund the police. Sanctuary cities. Release violent repeat offenders from jail.”
That was former President Donald Trump campaigning in the South Bronx in New York City on May 23, laying out a law-and-order message with an appeal to the city’s residents that largely vote Democratic in federal, state and local elections. Except for Staten Island, which leans Republican, the rest of the city — Manhattan, Bronx, Brooklyn and Queens — is almost exclusively run by Democrats.
Trump added, “Joe Biden supports all of this insanity and much more, but millions of people across New York know it’s crazy.”
Only occasionally is New York’s Democratic voting habit broken. One has to go back to George Pataki winning the governorship in 1994 and the mayoralty of Rudy Giuliani after he won the election in 1993 amid high crime for the last time Republicans had any hand in winning state and local executive elections. Both went on to be reelected for their offices in subsequent elections.
And one has to go back to 1984 for the last time a Republican won the state in the presidential election, when Ronald Reagan did it in his re-election bid in the 49-state sweep against Walter Mondale.
Now, 40 years later, in 2024, Trump is setting his sights on the Empire State where he was born and raised, seeking to expand the electoral map and force President Joe Biden to play a bit of defense in the Electoral College.
Besides sticky inflation, which is felt by the American people nationally, New Yorkers are also feeling a significant rise in violent crimes reported — a 39.2 percent increase in 2022 statewide, from 308 per 100,000 residents in 2021 to 429 per 100,000 residents in 2022, according to the latest Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) Crime Data Explorer data available.
That’s the highest level since 2007, when it was 414 per 100,000 residents at a time when violent crimes were still in significant decline from their 1990 peak of 1,181 per 100,000 residents.
That gives readers an idea of how bad things had to get in New York for Republicans to even have a shot at winning statewide and New York City races — it’s when enough Democrats break ranks and say enough is enough.
The crime issue is what almost catapulted former U.S. Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-N.Y) to the governor’s mansion in 2022, who overperformed in the race with 46.8 percent of the vote, the best a Republican had done since Pataki won his third term in 2002 with 49.4 percent of the vote, and only the first time since 2014 that the Republican candidate cracked 40 percent in the election, when Bob Astorino ran. Zeldin’s run was also instrumental in House Republicans picking up four seats in 2022 Congressional midterms in winning the majority.
Certainly, majorities in Congress are a part of the Trump’s calculation as he campaigns in New York. Even if he cannot win the state, his presence can certainly help Republicans running locally to hold or even pick up seats.
But to get there requires the candidate appealing across party lines. Near the top of the speech, Trump, noting the current Democratic officeholders governing the state, stated, “it doesn’t matter whether they’re Democrats or Republicans because this is about our city and our country, and it’s really about the people and in this case the people of New York City, New York State.”
That is a message which can resonate beyond New York, sending a strong signal to true swing voters everywhere. It’s also a gamble, but after a rally in New Jersey, and more planned for Virginia and Minnesota, appears to be one that Trump is willing to take.
Robert Romano is the Vice President of Public Policy at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
