Former President Donald Trump has jumped into the lead nationally against Vice President Kamala Harris, leading 47 percent to 46 percent in the latest NBC News poll taken Oct. 4 to Oct 8, and maintaining big leads on the issues of inflation, immigration and the Irael-Hamas-Hezbollah war.
On dealing with inflation and the cost of living, Trump led Harris in the poll 50 percent to 39 percent, an 11-point lead.
On securing the border and controlling immigration, Trump led Harris was 56 percent to 31 percent, a 25-point lead.
And on who would do a better job handling the Israel-Hamas-Hezbollah war, Trump led Harris 48 percent to 30 percent, an 18-point lead.
Those are fairly important issues, but suffice to say, they are not the only issues in the campaign. On abortion, Harris led Trump 53 percent to 34 percent, a 19-point lead.
On health care, Harris led Trump 47 percent to 37 percent, a 10-point lead.
The results appear to confirm what we’ve seen in other national polling on issues: Trump leads on the economy, inflation and immigration, whereas Harris leads on abortion and health care.
Meaning, a lot boils down to what motivates people to vote.
In the poll, abortion was cited as the top issue at 22 percent, while the cost of living came in at 16 percent and the border security and immigration registered at 19 percent. Health care came in at 7 percent. The Israel-Hamas-Hezbollah war came in at 9 percent. And protecting democracy or constitutional rights came out 18 percent.
25 percent chose “None of these” as the most important issue.
If you take the issues that favor Harris — abortion (22 percent), democracy (18 percent) and health care (7 percent) — they add up to 47 percent who say those are the most important issues. As for the issues that favor Trump — immigration and the border (19 percent), cost of living (16 percent) and the Israel-Hamas-Hezbollah war (9 percent) — those add up to 44 percent.
Given the high showing of “none of these” and the wording on “cost of living” which did not include the word “inflation” — when inflation and the economy are included in other national polls they consistently come out at the most important issues — could very well account for the results.
A separate ABC News-Ipsos poll taken Oct. 4 to Oct. 8 found 59 percent stating the economy was getting worse, compared to just 23 percent who thought it was getting better and 18 percent who say it will stay the same. That’s usually very bad news for the incumbent party as the undercurrent of economic discontent has had a tendency to oust incumbent parties.
What it yields is a very close race for the national popular vote, with Trump gaining an advantage — no Republican has ever lost the Electoral College while winning the popular vote, while it’s happened to Democrat five times in U.S. history — over Harris, who desperately needs to win nationally to win the Electoral College. As it is, anything less than a 2-point Harris win nationally could yield Trump a 71 percent chance of winning the election, according to the latest projection by election forecaster Nate Silver.
So far, the closeness of the race appears explainable by how the country is divided on what issues are important, and so the sample in the polls may or may not be representative of who turns out to vote. If more voters show up than sampled who were motivated by the economy and immigration, it could be a very good day for Trump on Nov. 5, whereas if more abortion or democracy voters show up, it could be a very good day for Harris. As usual, stay tuned.
Robert Romano is the Vice President of Public Policy at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
