With the June 2 California gubernatorial primary election two weeks out, early voting data shows turnout among Republicans, as well as older voters, a group that leans conservative, outpacing other groups.
California voters head to the polls on June 2 where voters will decide between eight Democrats and two Republicans for governor. The top two, regardless of party, will face off in November.
Because eight Democrats entered the race, though Rep. Eric Swalwell dropped out of the race last month, multiple Democrat candidates will appear on the June 2 ballot competing against just two Republicans in the race.
There is a high likelihood that Democrats will splinter their vote across the top two or three candidates, giving GOP frontrunner Steve Hilton, who earned President Trump’s endorsement in April a fighting chance at walking away from the primary with enough votes to challenge the Democrat frontrunner. This gives the GOP a fighting chance to win the gubernatorial race in California for the first time in 20 years.
While only about three percent of the state has voted early as of Thursday, May 14, the current turnout trend favors conservatives. Data calculated through Thursday from Political Data Inc. shows a strong trend of older and conservative voter groups outpacing other groups.
While more Democrats cast early ballots, the turnout rate so far has favored Republicans. Democrats have returned over 265,000 early ballots for a turnout rate of about three percent, and Republicans have returned over 237,000 ballots for a turnout rate of about four percent. Non-partisans have returned over 144,000 ballots for a turnout rate of about two percent.
Paul Mitchell, Vice President of Political Data Inc., told KCRA News in Sacramento that early data shows not only the demographic trends, but also shows which countries are returning data faster.
That said, Mitchell noted higher turnout among Republicans and higher turnout among older voters, a group that leans conservative.
Mitchell noted a higher return rate of ballots cast by high-propensity voters, which tend to be older voters.
“It’s kind of typical of a low-turnout election that these are the people that always vote in every election. They probably almost always vote early, and they’re getting their ballots in right away”, Mitchell said of the fact that older voters are turning out at a higher rate.
The data from Political Data Inc. shows voters over age 65 have a higher turnout rate than other groups at six percent. Voters in the 50-64 age bracket had a three percent turnout rate, and voters aged 35-49 had a two percent turnout rate. Young voters 18-34 had a one percent turnout rate.
The June 2 primary election is shaping up to be close. Polls in early May showed the leading Republican in the race, Steve Hilton, leading the pack.
However, former Biden Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra has been incrementally gaining on Hilton over the past week. The latest Emerson College poll, released May 13, shows Becerra leading all candidates narrowly with 19 percent of the vote. Hilton earns 17 percent in the survey, and Democrat billionaire Tom Steyer earns 17 percent as well.
Based on the latest polls, the possibility that two Republicans will face off in November is gone. However, with Becerra, Hilton, and Steyer all within a few points of each other, the election is high stakes.
If Republicans are able to vote Hilton into the top two, he has a shot at beating Becerra in November and pushing for pro-business, lower-tax policies that California voters are starving for. If Steyer displaces Hilton on June 2, two Democrats will face off in November and California will get more of the same Democratic control it has endured for the past 15 years.
Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
