California has become synonymous with costly, unsafe, tax-and-spend policies that drive businesses and families out of the state, but Republicans have a serious shot at reclaiming the governor’s mansion for the first time in decades this November, and that says a lot about how those policies work out long-term.
Polling conducted over the past two weeks shows California voters are not only seriously considering electing a Republican governor for the first time since 2006, but voters are also demanding lower taxes and stating they want a governor who whose policies are “very different” from Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom.
Recent polls have shown conservative political commentator Steve Hilton, who earned President Trump’s endorsement for governor in April, either leading or sometimes tied with former Biden health and human services secretary Xavier Becerra. One survey conducted by the California Democratic Party April 20 showed the two Republicans in the race — Steve Hilton and former Riverside County Sherrif Chad Bianco — leading eight Democrats. Other recent polls have shown Hilton leading or tied with Becerra.
California’s crowded top two primary system means that candidates from both the Democratic and Republican parties face off in less than a month on the June 2 ballot, and the top two — regardless of party — go on to face off in November. With eight Democrats on the ballot and two Republicans, there is a higher chance that Democrats will fracture their vote.
In the latest SurveyUSA-KGTV News survey released April 1, conservative political commentator Steve Hilton leads eight candidates with 20 percent of the vote, while Democrat billionaire Tom Steyer secures 18 percent and former Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco earns 12 percent. The survey finds Hilton securing a majority of whites (24 percent) and Asians (23 percent), and 14 percent of Hispanics.
Hilton also secures the greatest share of independents (18 percent), and the largest share of voters concerned about the homeless crisis (18 percent), the costs of living (22 percent), crime (36 percent) and immigration (42 percent).
The California VOTER Index, released April 20 by the California Democratic Party, found Steve Hilton and pro-Trump Sheriff Chad Bianco in the lead against eight Democrats. The survey found Hilton earning 16 percent of the vote and Bianco earning 14 percent.
In that survey, billionaire and climate activist Tom Steyer secured 13 percent of the vote and former health and humans services secretary Xavier Becerra earned 13 percent as well. Former congresswoman Katie Porter earned ten percent, and the other five Democratic candidates earned between one and five percent of the vote, splitting the vote further. A fifth of the state was still undecided, indicating there is room for both parties to court voters on the fence.
A CBS News/YouGov survey of 1,479 registered voters conducted April 21-23 found Republican candidate Steve Hilton still in the lead securing 16 percent of the vote, but found billionaire Tom Steyer in second place with 15 percent of the vote and former Biden health and humans services secretary Xavier Becerra in third place with 13 percent of the vote. The survey also found that 26 percent of the state was undecided.
In the CBS News/YouGov survey, Steve Hilton led among important groups of swing voters against his Democrat rivals. Hilton amassed the largest share of independent voters (16 percent), with Democrat Tom Steyer the only other candidate winning over ten percent of the vote among independents.
Hilton also amassed the largest share of the white vote (17 percent) and the Latino cote (18 percent), despite Democrats aggressively courting Latino voters which make up about 30 percent of eligible voters.
Becerra earned 16 percent of the Latino vote in the CBS News survey, and Steyer earned 13 percent. Non-college voters strongly favored Hilton, with Hilton earning 18 percent of the non-college vote, Steyer earning 15 percent, and Bianco earning 12 percent.
The survey found a clear preference for a departure from Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom’s agenda, with 35 percent of voters stating they wanted a governor whose policies were “very different” from Newsom’s. Only 12 percent of the state said they wanted a governor whose polices were “very similar” to Newsom’s.
California voters are also rejecting the tax-and-spend direction of the state, with the CBS News survey showing the largest share of likely voters — 45 percent — said cutting taxes should be the top priority for the new governor of California. Another 32 percent said building housing, and 23 percent said attracting new business to the state. Combined, that is 68 percent of registered voters saying they want the new governor to prioritize reducing the tax burden and making California more business friendly.
In the questions on taxes, key groups of swing voters said they wanted the new governor of California to prioritize reducing the tax burden. This includes a plurality of Hispanics (54 percent), women (48 percent), and moderates (48 percent).
California voters head to the crowded primary June 2, and the two candidates with the most votes, regardless of party, face off in November. While several Democrats, including billionaire Tom Steyer and former Biden health and human services secretary Xavier Becerra are gaining momentum, so far Steve Hilton is narrowly leading in most polls. Depending on the survey, around a fifth of the state or more are undecided. The next few weeks will be crucial for the candidates to convince undecided voters.
The fact that California is heavily weighing a departure from the tax-and-spend, soft-on-crime policies of the past two decades says a lot about what California has learned. And frankly, the rest of the country should watch whether voters finally reject that direction and start restoring a safer and more business-friendly climate.
Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
