While Republicans are facing an uphill battle heading into the 2026 Congressional midterm cycle with the headwinds of the Iran war, and its costly impact on fuel prices driving inflation, there is a core issue that drastically shifts the needle in Republicans’ favor according to a new survey of likely voters: immigration. This is not a shock considering the fact that illegal immigration is at the core of President Donald Trump’s victory in both 2016 and 2024, but it is something Republicans should not discount in 2026.
While touting job growth and the return of domestic manufacturing which are direct results of the Trump administration’s economic policies are important, the issue that moves the needle the most toward Republicans on the generic congressional ballot according to a new survey is the deportation of illegal aliens with criminal records. The average voter strongly sides with deportation of criminals, but Democrats in Congress have overwhelmingly been willing to block funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to curb deportations.
Here is how salient the immigration issue is at moving the needle. In the latest Cygnal survey of 1,500 likely voters conducted May 5-6, Republicans sit at a -7 disadvantage on the generic congressional ballot with 49 percent of likely voters planning to support a Democrat and 42 percent planning to support a Republican in November.
This spread in favor of Democrats in-line with the Real Clear Polling average of Democrats leading by 7.1 points. It must be mentioned that not all Real Clear Polling surveys used in average are conducted on likely voters. For example, the Economist/YouGov survey is conducted on U.S. adults, not registered or likely voters. Still, Democrats are ahead in most surveys.
The Cygnal survey shows several other warning signs for Republicans. Republicans in Congress have lost five points in favorability since February, and 20 percent of the Trump coalition from 2024 are only “somewhat-motivated”, “a-little-motivated”, “not-at-all-motivated”, or “unsure” on midterm turnout according to the survey. Among Harris voters from 2024, only thirteen percent are low motivation.
However, the survey shows that the issue of deporting criminal illegal aliens drastically reduces support for Democrats in November. When the generic congressional ballot question asks voters if they would support a Democratic candidate if that candidate opposed deportation of criminal illegal aliens or a Republican candidate if that candidate supported deportation, the results are significant.
In the immigration generic congressional ballot, 53 percent of likely voters say they would support a generic Republican over a Democrat if the Republican supported deportation and the Democrat did not. For the Democratic candidate, an unwillingness to support deportation of criminals is crippling. Support for a generic Democrat falls from 49 percent to just 35 percent, a fourteen-point plummet if the Democrat did not support the deportation of illegal criminals.
Among core groups of swing voters, an unsavory stance on deportation held by the Democrat candidate drastically moves swing voters toward the Republican side. Independents move from supporting a Democrat by twenty-three points (48 percent to 25 percent) on the regular generic congressional ballot, to supporting a Republican by seventeen points when the Republican supports deportation and the Democrat does not.
Women over age 55, a group that is more represented in off-year elections, move from supporting the Democratic candidate by thirteen points (53 percent to 40 percent) to supporting the Republican candidate by sixteen points (52 percent to 36 percent). Hispanics move from supporting the Democrat by thirteen points (51 percent to 38 percent) to supporting the Republican by eleven points.
According to the survey the single most powerful motivator that moves significant numbers of voters away from the Democratic candidate is the Democrat Party’s weak stance on deporting criminal illegal aliens.
Most Congressional Democrats are not heading into the midterm cycle campaigning openly on opposing the deportation of criminal illegals as that approach would not sit well with voters.
However, Democrats have repeatedly been willing to abuse Congressional power to withhold funding from the Department of Homeland Security, drastically limiting the department’s ability to implement deportation efforts.
In April, President Donald Trump signed into law a bill that restored funding to DHS, after a disturbing 75-day lapse in funding driven by Democrats. Democrats have been using their power to create lengthy gaps in funding, with Democrats voting seven times against funding DHS between February and March of this year. In March, Sen. Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), praised Democrats, saying Democrats “held the line” in demanding reforms to Immigration and Customs Enforcement before restoring funding.
Though President Trump signed a bill into law to restore funding to DHS in April, Democrats fought every step of the way and were perfectly content to hold back funding for the crucial Department of Homeland Security to advance their own agenda.
It is this willingness to strip DHS of essential resources, as well as Democrats in seventeen states, from California, Colorado, and Illinois, to Maryland, Minnesota, and New York, imposing “sanctuary” policies that protect criminals at the expense of citizens that must be communicated to voters. Democrats’ unwillingness to put citizens first is the single largest motivator that moves voters out of the Democratic camp. Republicans need to campaign on exposing Democrats’ willingness to let funding for immigration enforcement lapse while bolstering destructive sanctuary policies and let voters decide in November.
Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
