The latest New York Times/Siena College survey of potential Democrat voters and independent voters highlights the Democrat Party’s failures and illuminates a path for conservatives to attract disenfranchised soft Democrats. Hispanic and Black Democrats and men are growing particularly weary of the party’s failures on immigration and gender ideology.
While the survey is being heralded as a path forward for the Democrat Party, that might only be true if the party is willing to embrace a moderate, reasonable approach to immigration and gender ideology. Congressional Democrats are as radical as ever withholding funding for the Department of Homeland Security, enforcing “sanctuary policies” that harm citizens, and pushing nonsensical gender ideology.
The Times survey, which is 59 percent Democrat, 37 percent independent, and two percent another party, shows that a large chunk of Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents want to see the Democratic Party “move to the center”.
According to the survey, 47 percent of potential Democrat voters want the Democratic Party to move to the center as a whole, versus 28 percent who want to see it move to the left and 19 percent who want to see it not move in either direction.
Non-whites, men, and older voters are particularly invested in moving the Democrat Party to the center. Black voters want to see the party move to the center by 25 points, 49 percent to 24 percent. Hispanics want the party to move to the center by 36 points, 51 percent to 15 percent. Less than one-in-five Hispanic Democrats want to see the party move to the left.
Men want to see the party move to the center by 19 points, 49 percent to 30 percent. Voters over age 45 want to see the Democrat Party move to the center by 36 points, 55 percent to 19 percent.
Immigration, which the latest Cygnal survey of likely voters showed is the single most effective issue at moving swing voters away from Democrats, is also salient in the Times survey. The survey shows that by ten points, 41 percent to 31 percent, potential Democrats want to see the Democratic Pary move to the center on immigration. Just 31 percent want to see the party move to the left, and 24 percent want the party to stay where it is.
The “move to the center” preference is higher among voters over age 45, as well as non-white voters and men. Voters over age 45 want to see the party move to the center on immigration by 22 points, 48 percent to 26 percent.
Non-white voters want to see Democrats move to the center on immigration by seventeen points, 45 percent to 28 percent. Hispanics specifically want to see the Democratic Party move to the center by a broad 25 points, 47 percent to 22 percent.
Blacks are not far behind. Black voters want to see the party move to the center on immigration by nineteen points, 51 percent to 42 percent.
Men want to the Democrat Party move to the center by sixteen points, 43 percent to 27 percent.
Virtually the only group of potential Democrats that wants to see the party move to the left on immigration, and not by that much, are voters under age 44. Voters under age 44 want to see Democrats move to the left on immigration by six points. Bachelor’s degree holders are split — 36 percent want the party to move to the center on immigration and 36 percent want the party to move left.
Another glaring issue that has harmed the modern Democratic Party is the party’s often invasive approach to transgender issues. From pushing biological men into women’s sports, to the normalization of gender transition for children, Democrats’ take on transgender issues has driven a wedge between the party and key groups of voters.
The survey shows 36 percent of voters want to see the Democratic Party move to the center on transgender issues, while 30 percent want the party to stay where it is and 30 percent want the party to move further to the left.
Men, older voters and non-white voters are the driving force behind this desire to move toward the center on transgender issues. Democrat men want to see the party move toward the center by thirteen points, 39 percent to 26 percent. Voters over 45 want to see the party move to the center by nineteen points, 41 percent to 22 percent.
Non-white voters as a group want to see the party move to the middle by eleven points, 37 percent to 26 percent. Hispanics in particular want to see the party move to the middle on transgender issues by a broad 23 points, 40 percent to 17 percent. Black voters agree the party should move to the middle by twelve points, 39 percent to 27 percent.
This data is evidence of the growing split in the Democratic Party’s base. While some Democrats want to take the party further to the left, a significant share of potential Democrat voters want to see the party move to the middle.
The largest wedge issues that threaten the Democrat coalition — and issues that represent significant opportunities for conservatives and independent-minded candidates in the 2026 midterm cycle and beyond — are blatantly obvious.
The Democratic approach to immigration, characterized by open borders, sanctuary cities and citizenship-for-all, has failed completely. Even minority voters do not support this failed open border approach and want to see the party move to the middle on immigration by double digits.
The other issue Democrats lose potential voters on is transgenderism. The left’s draconian approach to forcing a transgender agenda onto the general population has not played out well. Democrats want to see the party move to the middle on this issue, with Black and Hispanic Democrats feeling this way the strongest.
What the data shows is that the Democratic Party is in a major bind. If it runs socially moderate populist candidates, it drives away a radical, and very vocal, wing of the party that demands to see open borders and a left-wing social agenda. But if it runs leftist candidates, it has a strong chance of driving away a vast swathe of moderates. Most notably, men, Hispanics, Blacks, and older voters. These voters are the most unhappy with the Democratic Party’s radical approach to the immigration crisis and transgender issues.
The Democratic Party’s negligent approach to immigration led to massive losses in the 2024 election, and the party has done little to repair the damage since then. While the 2026 midterm cycle will largely hinge on the state of the economy, and to a degree, the state of foreign relations impacting the economy, the Democrat Party’s failure on immigration is a huge opportunity for Republicans and independents in the years ahead.
Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
