The number of Americans saying they have jobs has decreased by more than 1.7 million seasonally adjusted since December 2025, according to the latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, constituting about a 1.05 percent drop of the overall employment level from the December 2025 peak of 163.9 million down to the current level of 162.2 million in June.
That includes monthly decreases of the employment level in five out of six months in 2026, a slightly worrying sign for the U.S. economy. Usually in recessions or slowdowns, labor markets will lose anywhere from 1.5 percent in milder recessions like the 1990-1991 or 2001 recessions, or as much as 5.7 percent in the financial crisis and Great Recession of 2007 to 2009, and the sharp but short-lived 16 percent of jobs in the Covid recession.
It would not take much more to reach the 1.5 percent decrease in the household survey — about another 750,000 — that would bring the total lost since December up to 2.45 million.
So far, since November 2025, native-born persons with jobs account for 1.26 million of the drop, and foreign-born persons since January are down 837,000 — note, those are not seasonally adjusted, so there is variation involved, but both show downward trends this year so far.
One curiosity is the establishment survey of employers shows more Americans with jobs than ever at 158.9 million. It’s not showing the same trend as the household survey.
Also, the unemployment rate remains near historic lows at just 4.2 percent, actually decreasing in June despite those employed dropping by 507,000. The reason is because also dropping were those unemployed, down 213,000 to 7.09 million.
And the real harbinger, those not in labor force increased by 832,000 to 105.8 million. So far, it’s increased 2.48 million since December, of which, 1.7 million are seniors (including those with and without a disability). That, as the Baby Boomer retirement wave continues apace.
Meaning, a good number of the decrease in the overall employment level are senior citizens who are leaving the labor force. There is also some decrease from the Trump administration’s deportation of illegal aliens who are still counted in the household survey. And the rest are working age adults.
Is it a slowdown, or a recession? Nobody wants to hear that — with President Donald Trump and Republicans hoping to hold onto majorities in the House and Senate in the November Congressional midterms — but it’s too soon to tell. There’s still a bit of a ways to go in terms of the employment level decreasing, although in recessions those can drop fast once they really get going.
Unquestionably, the economy was weakening coming out of the inflation of 2021 to 2023, and then household budgets were again taxed during the Iran war inflation the past several months. Inflation has outpaced incomes since 2021 and the American people still have not even broken even.
Usually, when disinflation takes root, unemployment tends to increase, which it has—from a low of 5.7 million in April 2023 to the current 7.09 million (it peaked in November 2025 at 7.78 million) but just not by enough for the bean counters at the National Bureau of Economic Research to say there was a recession — yet.
It could happen, and the truth is, it might not take much more to get there — perhaps we need to wait for the establishment survey to move — and after the post-Covid inflation, could be long overdue. As usual, stay tuned.
Robert Romano is the Executive Director of Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
