Despite a close race in November according to recent generic congressional ballot surveys, long-term approval data for the Democratic Party shows a steep double-digit decline since the last midterm cycle among voters ages 18–44.
The data indicates that even if Gen Z and millennial voters are split on their decision in November, the Democratic Party’s reputation has suffered an erosion of support that could be difficult to recover from.
Democrats are ahead in the generic congressional ballot by an average of 4.7 percentage points according to the latest Real Clear Polling data, a 3.4-percentage-point decline since May.
While the race is narrowing, data on favorability indicates that voters under age 44 view the Democratic Party significantly less favorably heading into the 2026 general election than they did in 2022.
The largest decline in support has occurred among millennial voters ages 30–44, many of whom now have families. In the latest Democratic Party tracker data from YouGov, which surveys 1,055 to 2,440 registered voters and has tracking data dating back to 2017, Democrats have lost substantial ground among millennials.
The GOP has mostly held steady and even gained modest ground, indicating that the last four years — which saw the transition from the Biden administration to the Trump administration — have weakened support for Democrats, but not Republicans.
The Democratic Party has gone from a net favorable rating of +6.4 points in the summer of 2022 among millennials to a net approval rating of -17 points in the latest survey.
Democrats are currently underwater by just over 17 points, with 56.4 percent of voters holding an unfavorable view of the Democratic Party and only 38.7 percent holding a positive view.
This is a steep decline compared to four years ago, when the Democratic Party held a net favorable rating of +6.4 percentage points, with 48.4 percent approving of the party and 42 percent disapproving. Overall, Democrats have suffered a 23.4-percentage-point decline in favorability among millennials.
The data reveals that despite the Trump administration and congressional Republicans battling inflation, oil prices, and the conflict with Iran, Republicans have gained modestly among millennials since 2022.
While Democrats have suffered a 23.4-percentage-point decline in net favorability since the summer of 2022, Republicans have gained 2.8 points.
The GOP currently sits at a net favorable rating of -14.5 percentage points, with 53.9 percent giving the party a negative rating and 39.4 percent giving Republicans a positive rating. While a negative approval rating is nothing to brag about, the Republican Party is viewed more favorably now than it was in July 2022, despite the persistent problems of inflation and the Iran conflict.
In July 2022, the GOP was underwater by 17.3 percentage points, with 54 percent giving the party a negative approval rating and 36.7 percent giving the party a positive rating.
Both parties have lost substantial ground among Gen Z since 2022, but Democrats have lost more, despite concerns over inflation and the Iran conflict.
Democrats are underwater by 6.7 percentage points among voters ages 18–29. The survey reveals that 51.5 percent of Gen Z disapprove of the Democratic Party and 44.8 percent approve.
This is a reversal from July 2022, when the Democratic Party held a net approval rating of +8.5 points, with 48.8 percent of young people approving and 40.3 percent disapproving. This amounts to a 15.2-percentage-point decline in net approval since 2022.
The GOP has also suffered a blow among Gen Z, with disapproval at a peak of 67.8 percent. The Republican Party’s net approval rating has declined 10.2 percentage points since 2022, compared to a 15.2-percentage-point decline for Democrats.
The Republican Party is currently underwater among Gen Z by 37.7 percentage points, with 67.8 percent of young voters holding a negative view of the GOP and 30.1 percent holding a positive view.
In July 2022, 30.6 percent of voters ages 18–29 approved of the party, compared to 30.1 percent who approve now.
These numbers present an unsettling trend for Democrats, who have long relied on securing the hearts and minds of young voters to feed the Democratic Party machine. Over the past four years — which saw the tail end of the pandemic, the last days of the Biden administration, the Democratic Party’s attempt to push Kamala Harris into the White House, and President Trump’s landslide victory — young voters have not drifted back toward the left. They have rapidly moved away from the Democratic Party.
While Gen Z has moved away from the GOP as well as from the Democratic Party, it has done so at a slower pace. Millennials, meanwhile, have significantly moved away from Democrats and shifted toward the right since 2022.
Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
