Electricity output increased by 2.8 percent in 2025, from 4.308 million kilowatthours to 4.429 million kilowatthours (kWh), according to the latest data compiled by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
The news comes amid President Donald Trump’s 2024 campaign promise to double U.S. electricity generation and bring prices down as demand skyrockets in the age of artificial intelligence and data centers, as well as with renewed high-tech manufacturing in the U.S.
For example at a Potterville, Mich. Rally in August 2024, President Trump said, “For us to compete successfully with China and others on AI, we’re going to need twice the electricity that we currently produce. Can you believe that? We’re not going to be even close. The only guy that can do that is a guy like me.”
But at current rates — a 2.8 percent increase — it would take more than 20 years for electricity generation to double in the U.S., nowhere close to the President’s goal. That’s pathetic. China is watching to see what we’re going to do here.
The U.S. may not be fully meeting demand, with electricity prices jumping 4.6 percent in 2025, although to be fair, that’s now down to 4 percent past 12 months as of June, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data.
The biggest sector gains in electricity generation were coal, from 652,156 kWh in 2024 to 737,151 kWh in 2025, or a 13 percent increase; and from solar, 219,834 kWh in 2024 to 295,671 kWh, or a 34.5 percent increase.
This was partially offset by a 3.3 percent decrease in natural gas electricity generation, from 1.869 million kWh in 2024 to 1.807 million kWh in 2025. In part, that is due to the conversion of power generators; during natural gas electricity’s expansion in 2010s, it was often accompanied declines in coal generation. The net result was no new thermal electricity generation for years and years.
As it is, just looking at coal and natural gas together, today’s 2.5 million kWh is still less than their combined 2.77 million kWh in 2005, 2 million of which was coal.
Otherwise, in 2025 nuclear (784,781 kWh), hydroelectric (247,023 kWh), other fossil fuels (10,697 kWh), wood (31,809 kWh), waste (14,378 kWh) and geothermal (15,669 kWh) remained steady more or less from the year prior. Wind was up 2.76 percent to 464,391 kWh in 2025.
As for 2026 so far, in the first three months, now coal is down from its 2025 level 11.4 percent, while natural gas has increased 1.1 percent. Two steps forward, one step back, even with the 2009 EPA carbon endangerment finding being eliminated under President Trump and EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin’s leadership.
And, as President Trump has encouraged data centers to bring their own electricity generation on-site, which is incentivized in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
Still, the gains seen by solar are notable in spite of political hurdles to get leasing on farmlands and utilizing federal lands. Currently, the coal, natural gas and nuclear power generators available appear to already be spoken for, and wind’s expansion from the last decade appears to be slowing. What more can be gotten from hydroelectric or geothermal? Something’s got to give.
To reach the President’s goal, then, every other category needs to more than double, or else one or the other is going to have to carry the load. So whatever it takes, get more coal, nuclear, solar and everything else that has capacity to grow. Obvious barriers are political, with Republicans favoring traditional thermal sources while Democrats emphasize renewable. In reality, we need all of it.
China is able to exponentially expand, uses subsidies freely and without the federal, state and local barriers we artificially put in our own way — and is extremely reluctant to subsidize at the levels that might be necessary to compete long term. America’s industrial policy along with its grid needs a substantial upgrade. What if there’s an AI war in the next decade or so? For national security alone, assuming the President’s doubling estimate was remotely correct, U.S. electricity generation is likely inadequate.
As things currently stand towards doubling the grid, as President Trump warned in 2024: “We’re not going to be even close.” As Kirk would tell Scotty, we need more power.
Robert Romano is the Executive Director of Americans for Limited Government.
