Don’t look now, but the Democrats’ hopes of picking up the U.S. Senate in 2026 could be harder than they might like. With the current Republican majority 53 to 47, Democrats need to pick up four net seats in order to come out on top and reclaim the majority there.
But when you look around the map and at some of the latest polls, it’s hard to piece together enough seats.
For example, look at the latest batch of New York Times-Siena polls, in Iowa, Republican U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson led Democratic candidate Josh Turke 48 percent to 46.
In Ohio, again in the New York Times-Siena poll, Republican Sen. Jon Husted leads former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown 50 percent to 47 percent.
In Alaska, per Times-Siena, Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan leads Democratic candidate Mary Peltola 47 percent to 45 percent.
And in Texas, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic candidate James Talarico are tied 47 percent to 47 percent in the Times-Siena poll.
In other states, the last poll in Maine taken before Democratic candidate Graham Platner dropped out of the race was a Fox News poll that showed Republican Sen. Susan Collins had overtaken the race, 50 percent to 47 percent.
Florida seems so far gone that no major media outlet has done a poll there since Emerson in March that showed Republican Sen. Ashley Moody led Democratic candidate Alex Vindman 46 percent to 38 percent.
One state that might be hard for Republicans to hold is North Carolina where Republican Sen. Thom Tillis is retiring and Times-Siena has former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper leading former Republican National Committee chairman Mike Whatley 50 percent to 43 percent.
If the above is what happened on election day, there might just be a single seat picked up, three short of what Democrats would need to get to 51 votes.
And that’s assuming Republicans don’t pick up any seats in New Hampshire, Georgia and Michigan, where races might be more competitive than expected — especially if surprising Republican strength in the states Democrats thought they might steal a seat exhibits a stronger trend in currently Democratic-held seats.
If so, in spite of global oil prices taking another spike with fresh hostilities in and around Iran, right now, the trend could be President Donald Trump and Republicans’ friend in November. As usual, stay tuned.
Robert Romano is the Executive Director of Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
